Murton's Powerless Streak
I was as big a proponent of having Matt Murton as a member of the starting outfield as anyone, but Murton has contributed to one of the Cubs' glaring weaknesses this year: lack of power. The Cubs finished first in the National League in Isolated Power (Slg.% minus BA.) in 2004 and second in 2005. This year, they are last, and not by a small margin. 15th place San Diego has an IsoP 13% higher than the Cubs.
At the end of April (game log), Murton had an 809 OPS with a .442 Slg.%. His OPS has dropped to 690 and his SLG to .348, numbers well below par for a corner outfielder. The average major league leftfielder currently has a 798 OPS. Murton has not had an extra base hit since April 28. He has not homered since April 13. Given the Cubs' reluctance to use Michael Restovich, there isn't a viable alternative to Murton right now. Additionally, I believe Murton will snap out of this powerless streak. The Cubs need him to do so.
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Murton
Wow, April 28? I'd actually been meaning to look that up myself. I knew it had been a while, but that's really a long time.
Here in Dallas, we've been watching Mark Teixeira go through kinda the same thing. After slugging .480, .560, and .575 in his first three seasons in the league, and .495 in April this season, he's now hitting .280/.371/.429 this year, with only 4 HR.
Obviously those numbers are still considerably better than Murton's, but my point is that these kinds of extended slumps happen to even the best hitters in the league. I think it would be a panic move to sit Murton now, and I hope the Cubs aren't considering it.
Clines & Murton
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Murton start off hitting really well until Hitting Coach Gene Clines made a statement that Murton was not being aggressive enough and then Murton's hitting went into decline right after that?
Re: Clines & Murton
Did Clines really say that? I don't remember seeing that.
Re: Clines & Murton
Yes he did. Can't remember where he was quoted right offhand though.
You're kidding right?
Look which team is 11th on this "stat of the day". The Cardinals, who have the best record in the NL. Lack of power isn't the problem. Inability to get on base IS the problem. Murton is 3rd among Cub regulars in OBP. He is NOT the problem.
Look at team OBP and you'll see it correlates much more closely with runs scored than Isolated power.
To further prove my point, neither the 2004 or 2005 teams were successes, so that fact that they were first and second in these stats further illustrates that fact that it's meaningless.
The Cubs and Angels are the worst 2 teams in the MLB in OBP. This accounts for the fact that they are both hugely disappointing this year. It really is that simple.
OBP
Not that our host can't speak for himself, but I've been reading his writing for years now and I've never known him to discount the value of OBP.
I think you're misunderstanding what he's saying. For instance, he never said lack of power was "the problem," but instead "one of the Cubs' glaring weaknesses", which is obviously true.
Due to the way the team was constructed, the Cubs were never going to be a high-OBP team. They haven't been in previous years, either, but they were able to compensate for that to some degree by hitting a lot of homers; far too often solo homers, but runs on the board nonetheless. This year, though, the power that the team was counting on to be an adequate offense simply isn't there.
This doesn't mean that OBP problems never existed. It just means that the OBP problems are now even more glaring.
on-base and power
lohroffc, you're overstating your case. Of course, the Cubs' low OBP is a problem. But, historically, Slg.% has a slightly higher correlation to runs scored than OBP does. The Cubs have gone from an average or slightly below average offense the past couple of years to a terrible offense because of their power loss. They had already been bad at getting on base. But their power previously allowed them to stay competitive, to a degree. So the IsoP stat is not "meaningless," because power does matter.
The Cardinals may be 11th in IsoP, but they're pretty close to the league average. They also happen to be pretty close to the league average in runs scored. The Cardinals have the best record with an average offense by having, easily, the lowest ERA in the NL.
I used IsoP in this post instead of Slg.% because I wanted to separate out the Cubs' singles to show how much their extra-base hitting ability has fallen. IsoP takes singles out of Slg%.
Murton, because of his lack of power, is a below average offensive leftfielder right now. I think he'll get better, and I agree with Brian that the Cubs would be shortsighted to give up on him, but he is part of the problem right now.
Slg%
The author isn't talking about slugging percentage. The author is using raw power to make his case. I haven't checked his work, but I will assume that it is true that the Cubs have ranked 1 and 2 in this statistic during the past 2 years. In those same 2 years they finished 9th and 7th in runs scored. In those same 2 years, they finished 2 in slugging, yet they finished in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Where were they in OBP? In both of these years they were 11th in OBP.
My point is simply this... when it comes time to point fingers, there are a LOT of other guys I'd point at before I point one at Murton. Our highly sought after CF has an OPS that is LAST among NL starting CF's... almost 100 points behind the next guy! Our multi-million dollar third basemen is 9th among starters at his position.
RE: Slg%
lohroffc, I did talk about IsoP and not SLG in my initial post, but IsoP is just SLG minus BA, so they measure many of the same things.
Also, please note that no one has argued that fingers could not be pointed elsewhere. All I've said is that Murton's power has been below average. (It was nice to see him hit a home run tonight, though.) I'm not even arguing (and neither has Brian C) that Murton should be taken out of the lineup.
Murton's OBP
His OBP drop over that last month correlates directly with his decreased pitches per plate appearance. It appears our fearless leaders have convinced the best Cubs hitting prospect since Mark Grace that he needs to be more aggressive at the plate.
Results
An opposite field homer and a walk for Matt Murton last night. Once again, CubsNet.com gets results.
Re: Results
We aim to serve.