Finally! After a long, cold dreary winter, baseball is back! So, the Cubs open in Arizona instead of the Friendly Confines. I can deal. Spring training is over, and today the battle begins. I never pay that much attention to spring training anyway. Breaking balls don't break in the Arizona air (a portent for today); pitchers will work on one or two pitches rather than bring their entire arsenal to bear; balls fly farther; hitters face pitchers who'll be optioned to the minors soon--there's not much in the way of real indicators. I just watch to make sure they don't get hurt(sorry, Borowski. ouch!) Starting today, it counts.

What to watch for, this early in the season? Real indicators.

--Creating Runs as Baker likes to put it. Manufacturing runs, for the rest of us. Small ball. Hitting behind the runner, instead of everybody standing around waiting for the three-run jack. You know, the things we get promised every year that "this year's club" will work on.

--On Base Percentage Not as the Billy-Beane-holy-grail type stat, but an improvement, especially at the top of the order. I'll be looking for the willingness to work for a walk, and a decrease in swinging at bad pitches. Patterson will get most of the scrutiny, but swing-at-anything fever can be contagious. Perhaps a series of vaccinations...

--Outfield defense Offense from the corners of the outfield after the departure of Sosa and Alou has been a hot topic, but I'm also interested in their defense. The first time Burnitz hits a cutoff man (assuming he does) there'll be a loud cheer in Chez Faithful.

--Chemistry the great unknown that can turn a group of individuals into a team, a living breathing organism, a big scary Camaro on jacked-up back wheels roaring its way through town with no one to stop it (see 2003 Cubs. Okay, even big scary Camaros can blow a tire). The lack of it can turn a team into 25 toddlers on big wheels scattering to the four corners of the playground (see end of 2004 season).

--and of course, the Bullpen all eyes will be on Hawkins and Borowski (when he returns) but the real indicator will be how the middle relievers fare. Remlinger is finally recovered (he says) and should be better. Rusch is always a battler. Wuertz has proven to serviceable. Wellemeyer could be very good, provided he can find the plate. For that matter, I could be very good if I could find the plate. After that, it starts to sound like the scenes in "Major League" when the fans ask, 'who are these guys?'. Leicester, Fox, Bartosh (who is at least a lefty) all beg that question. I get uncomfortable going into a season with a middle relief corp who wear wide receiver numbers. Still, some of these guys look like they can pitch. Whether they do or not is precisely what I'll be watching for. I'll also be looking into my apparent dependence on parentheses.

Nomar looks healthy and productive, Ramirez seems poised for a big year (always helpful in negotiations, Aramis), the rest of the lad are healthy, or at least healthier, so optimism is high, as it always is on opening day.
The sabremetricians among you can probably find a thousand reasons why this Cubs team will lose. That's why they play the game on the field, instead on using computer simulations. No team had come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a 7 game series. Ever. Until last year. Defy the odds, get the whiners below decks, and Play Ball!