Hope springs infernal

April 4, 2005 by cyberstoic

Once a team makes the playoffs, anything can happen. The 2004 Red Sox are the archetypal example to prove this truism. So there's no point in attempting to divine who will win it all this year, and especially whether the Cubs will do it. But, obviously, they need to be in it to win it. I count eight teams in the National League (Atlanta, Florida, Chicago, Houston, St. Louis, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco) with very good odds of making the playoffs, yet there are only four spots available.

In the Central Division, the Cardinals will come back to Earth somewhat, though even a 10-win dropoff from last year means a 95-win season. They lost Edgar Renteria, but gained Mark Mulder. They're the obvious favorite. The Astros lost Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent, but essentially gained Andy Pettitte since he was out almost all of last year with an injury. I think they'll be worse than last year, but I think they'll contend.

Of note is that the second-division teams won't contend but will be tougher competition for the Cubs. Yes, even the Pirates -- at least when Oliver Perez is pitching. This will hamper the Cubs' overall win total and their chances for the Wild Card.

So, given the situation, here's what I think needs to happen for the Cubs to be a sure-thing for October:

* Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux must each make at least 30 starts and perform up to at least their historic standards;
* The performance out of the No. 5 spot in the starting rotation must be league-average;
* The collection of retreads, disappointments and question marks known as the Cubs' bullpen must have a great year combined;
* Every position player must have a career year, with the exception of Nomar Garciaparra, who only needs a 2003-caliber season.

Given that all of the above is very unlikely, unless a bunch of other teams really disappoint I put the odds of October baseball in Wrigley Field at 4-1. If everybody stays healthy for most of the year, it should be a nondisastrous season.

I just hope they finish over .500.

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