Evaluating Zambrano's Chase for the Cy Young
After yesterday's victory over the St. Louis Cardinals, completing an improbable four game sweep, Carlos Zambrano's name is firmly implanted Cy Young Award conversations. He has won nine straight decisions, moving his record to 12-3. The Cubs' last Cy Young Award winner was Greg Maddux in 1992. Let's briefly look at the possibility that Zambrano will join Maddux on that list:
Zambrano stands atop the National League in three key metrics in the eyes of Cy Young voters: wins (12), win percentage (.800), and strikeouts (152) (unfortunately, Zambrano also easily leads the league in walks (82)). Zambrano is also second in the league in innings pitched (152).
It will hurt Zambrano that there are five players sitting ahead of him in the ERA race, including innings pitched leader and ERA leader Brandon Webb (2.64).
Looking at more advanced metrics, Zambrano is second in the NL in VORP, but he is 12 runs behind Webb, a significant deficit.
What will mostly hurt Zambrano, though, is that he will not pitch in any meaningful games in August and September. If Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, or Bronson Arroyo really step up during that time, and if Webb keeps doing what he's doing, Zambrano is going to have a hard time creating the kind of impression in the voters' minds that he'll need to win the award.
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