Maddux Traded to Dodgers

Submitted by cubsnet on Mon, 2006-07-31 14:40.

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ESPN.com reports that the Chicago Cubs have traded Greg Maddux to the Los Angeles Dodgers for infielder Cesar Izturis.

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Izturis

Submitted by cubsnet on Mon, 2006-07-31 14:47.

Izturis is a younger Neifi Perez. The Cubs save a little money on the deal (Maddux has $3M left on his contract this year; Izturis $1.1M), but the Cubs would have been better off keeping Maddux for sentimental value. That said, we can't really pass judgment on this trade until we know whether Maddux requested the trade. That's quite possible, given what Baseball Prospectus's Will Carroll reported earlier today:

One interesting note on Greg Maddux: Indications are that Maddux himself was involved in the discussions, with his agent, Scott Boras, doing more looking around than Jim Hendry. Both sides understood the parameters under which a deal could be done. The relationship between Boras and the Cubs is a good one--something that we should remember when free agency kicks in this offseason.

Izturis

Submitted by Brian C on Mon, 2006-07-31 17:09.

That said, we can't really pass judgment on this trade until we know whether Maddux requested the trade.

You're too kind. If history has shown us anything, it's that Hendry needs no external pressure applied before he's willing to bring another weak-hitting middle infielder aboard. On the contrary, I'm sure that Hendry feels he made out like a bandit - it's not every day you can pick up a Gold Glove shortstop!

I'm so bitter about this I can hardly type. The one thing - the one thing! - that the Cubs didn't need was another shortstop who can't hit. Has Hendry not been watching the team at all this season? He would have been better off releasing Maddux outright if Maddux didn't want to stay. At least then we wouldn't have both Izturis and Neifi under contract for next year.

This is completely unbelievable. I don't know what else to say.

Downey and Rogers on Izturis

Submitted by cubsnet on Tue, 2006-08-01 11:28.

Brian, I hope you saw what Mike Downey and Phil Rogers wrote in today's Tribune. They're falling over themselves to see who can praise Izturis more.

Rogers: "It's also hard to believe that the Los Angeles Dodgers would trade 26-year-old shortstop Cesar Izturis, a 2005 All-Star, to have Maddux for the stretch run. Credit both Maddux's stature and the deal-making skills of Jim Hendry for bringing the Cubs the best return of any of baseball's sellers at the deadline for waiver-free trades." "In Izturis, the Cubs have landed themselves an excellent all-around player who could be their shortstop through 2008, at least."

Downey: "In one of the Cubs' smartest maneuvers of this century." "Izturis is a beauty, a gem." "A shortstop like this does not come along every day." (It's like Downey has never heard of Neifi Perez.) "[T]he acquisition of Izturis comes as a pleasant surprise. No, more than pleasant ... a truly delightful surprise." "If this kid stays healthy—I know, I know, don't even go there—then the Cubs have acquired a genuine star in the making."

That's great stuff.

Neifi Perez??!!

Submitted by FearlessBear on Tue, 2006-08-01 14:44.

If you mean by your parenthetical comment on Downey's column that Neifi Perez is as good as Izturis, then either the Cubs gave themselves a deal that is the screwing of the century or you are crazy in your perception of Perez.

Respectfully,
FEARLESS BEAR

Izturs and Perez

Submitted by cubsnet on Tue, 2006-08-01 14:52.

I don't think I'd quite phrase it like Perez is as good as Izturis. More like: Izturis and the 1999 version of Perez are awfully similar.

Fair Enough

Submitted by FearlessBear on Wed, 2006-08-02 10:59.

Thanks for the clarification. If Izturis turns out to be like Perez, well, what can you say? After all, it's the Cubs!!

Respectfully,
FEARLESS BEAR

re: Downey and Rogers

Submitted by Brian C on Tue, 2006-08-01 14:53.

Yeah, great indeed.

I think Joe Sheehan is probably closer to the mark (subscription required):

Correlation isn’t causation, but you can trace the Dodgers’ descent in the NL West to Izturis’ arrival from the disabled list: they were 14-21 between his debut June 21 and Sunday ... Every game he played that Willy Aybar didn’t pushed the Dodgers further back in the NL West. If the Dodgers got nothing back for him they would have been fine. Getting the current version of Maddux is a minor help. Losing Izturis, who’s just a glove playing out of position on the Dodgers, is a major one.

What the ...

Submitted by walkingirony on Mon, 2006-07-31 15:09.

We traded for a guy that had tommy john surgery. What you throw maybe 6 times a game and you need that? I am thoroughly [mad]. You keep Maddux, regardless of his cost (Cubs can afford it), regardless of his win/loss record (who else besides zambrano is good this year?). You keep him if for nothing else, because you have had a plethora of young pitchers called up to the majors this year.

I am so, utterly, disappointed.

Maddux traded :(

Submitted by diana on Mon, 2006-07-31 15:39.

I'm saddened to see Maddux leave the Cubs. :(

Cubs send Maddux to L.A., Walker to S.D. for prospect

By Dave van Dyck
Tribune staff reporter
Published July 31, 2006, 4:03 PM CDT

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cs-...

-----

A vintage Maddux moment
July 30, 2006
BY TONI GINNETTI Staff Reporter
http://www.suntimes.com/output/cubs/cst-...

Photos from Ryne Sandberg Day at Wrigley Field

Meet Ronnie the Collie

Izturis

Submitted by AdamSt on Mon, 2006-07-31 18:49.

That's the best we could do from the Dodgers farm system? A guy who's likely a backup to Ronny Cedeno and as a veteran could get $5M in aritration. The smartest move would be to non-tender him, but for that the Cubs could have kept Maddux.

AND adding insult to injury, the ESPN story refenced above says the Cubs send $2M to the Dodgers so they don't even save money this year.

$2M

Submitted by cubsnet on Mon, 2006-07-31 19:12.

The ESPN story changed from when I first posted it. Originally, there was nothing about the Cubs sending the Dodgers money. That certainly makes the deal worse.

2007 Double Play Combo: Izturis and Cedeno

Submitted by cubsnet on Mon, 2006-07-31 19:21.

It appears what Hendry has done with this trade, according to Carrie Muskat at MLB.com, is set up his double play combination for next season, and beyond. Cedeno is moving to second base. So, Izturis at short, Cedeno at second, and Neifi Perez backing them up. The worst hitting middle infield in all of baseball.

2007 Double Play combo: Izturis and Cedeno

Submitted by cubphanatic on Mon, 2006-07-31 22:06.

What do you mean, "the worst hitting middle infield in all of baseball"?

Since when does a middle infield have to hit?

I live in LA and have watched Izturis play, he will bring a lot to the defense.

Middle infield hitting

Submitted by cubsnet on Tue, 2006-08-01 07:18.

Since when does a middle infield have to hit?

Since about 1985.

Why Are You Surprised?

Submitted by Charles Rector on Mon, 2006-07-31 22:24.

Have you guys not noticed that the only times that Hendry has done well in trading is when the other team has to dump payroll?

Its really irrelevant what the fate of Baker and the coaching staff is this year. As long as Hendry is the GM, the Cubs will always be under the 8 ball.

Look at Izturis 2004 season

Submitted by killebrew on Tue, 2006-08-01 00:19.

Back in 2004 Izturis had a .330 OBA at the age of 24. That is not bad, considering that he is also a Gold Glove SS.

I think he has room to develop.
Remember that Ozzie Smoth was a very poor hitter when for his first few seasons. The thing is that great defensive up the middle players keep themselves in the lineup and over the course of time, many of them by just hanging around, "learn" to become better batters.

This will be a good move for the Cubs. When the Atlanta Braves began their long run, they started by improving their defense, which in turn gave enabled their young pitching staff to have confidence in their fielders.

Be sure your dog can trust you.

Ozzie Smith and Izturis

Submitted by cubsnet on Tue, 2006-08-01 07:23.

Remember that Ozzie Smith

Relative to his era, Smith was a better hitter in the early part of his career than Izturis has been in his. Additionally, Smith's defense was better, according to Baseball Prospectus's rate stats. Smith v. Izturis.

Izturis had better be really good.

Submitted by FearlessBear on Tue, 2006-08-01 09:34.

I have to admit that even though he is a 2005 All Star, Mr. Izturis is a complete unknown to me. He had better be really really good. Otherwise, giving up a Hall Of Fame pitcher and paying someone to take him will prove to be insane. But hey, that's the kind of trade the Cubs seem to specialize in, historically. (I can hear the jokes already being framed and put on the shelf for future use. Something along the lines of "what are the two worst pitcher trades the Cubs ever made?")

Respectfully,
FEARLESS BEAR

Defense up the middle is more

Submitted by jthiemeyer on Tue, 2006-08-01 09:44.

Defense up the middle is more important than offensive players up the middle that can't field. Look at the last few world series champs. Did the lethal power numebrs of Luis Castillo and Alex Gonzalez help Florida from win in 2003??? How about Orlando Carbrera and Mark Bellhorn in 2004?? Then there is Juan Uribe and Tadahito Iguchi in 2005.......only Luis Castillo has a career average over .300 and none of these guys hit for signifcant power (18 HR's is the highest). Go back one more year and look at David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy.....there is a pattern with championship teams. Defense up the middle and power from the corners.

I will take Juan Pierre and Cesar Izturis as my 1-2 hitters and the double play combo of Izturis and Cedeno. I am not saying this move will make the Cubs a championship team, but it is a step in the right direction in my opinion.

Middle infield

Submitted by cubsnet on Tue, 2006-08-01 11:51.

jthiemeyer, I agree with you that good middle infield defense is vital to a championship team. But each of the players you list also provided some offensive value:

2002:
Eckstein: .363 OBA
Kennedy: hit .312/.345/.449, for an OPS 6.5% above the league average.

2003:
Castillo: .381 OBA
Gonzalez: .443 Slg.

2004:
Bellhorn (who did not play for his defense): hit .264/.373/.444, for an OPS 3.5% above league average
Cabrera: .465 Slg.%

2005:
Iguchi: hit .278/.342/.438, for an OPS 2% above league average
Uribe: .412 Slg.%

Izturis and Cedeno have not really come close to putting up similar numbers.

The point is, you need defense and offense up the middle. Cedeno and Izturis may eventually provide some offense, but their history suggests that the chance of that isn't good.

stats

Submitted by jthiemeyer on Tue, 2006-08-01 13:43.

cubsnet,

You seem to have a good knowledge of statistics (at least know where to look them up, like me). All these players did provide some value, I agree, but you should know that all we have to go off of going into each season is what has happened in the past and 1 years worth of statistics do not accurately reflect a players career. Kennedy never approached a .300 average before 2002 (best was .270) and he barely slugged .400 before that year too (one year at .402 and another at .403).

Gonzalez equaled his homerun total (18) in 2003 of the 3 previous seasons (7,9,2) so you can't say going into that season he was thought to be an offensive threat for that team.

Saying Cabrera slugged .465 in 2004 is just wrong. He might have done that for the last 50 games of the year, but he slugged .336 the rest of the 2004 season. Again you are taking too small of a sample to make an accurate comparison. If that was the case you could compare his 50 games to Cedeno's 41 game stint in 2005 when he hit .356/.375/.300 (I think we would all be ok with that). I personally think this is more accurately what you will see from Cedeno over his career than where he is now. This is his first full season and it is obvious that the grind has started to wear him down. I could go on with the other players but I just dont have the time.

Bottom line is that you have to look at the player as a whole and not just one stat in one particular year. I wish there was a way to put a value to the number of runs a player saves defensively in a season and calculate a stat to make a player comparison that way. In my opinion, a run prevented by a defensive play that someone else could not have made is just as good as a run scored or a run batted in. We will see a lot of this from these two up the middle. This combo will have close to if not the best range of any SS/2B combo in baseball. I personally have had enough of the todd walker dropped double play balls for a lifetime.

I love Greg Maddux just as much as the next guy. I grew up 15 minutes from Wrigley and spent my childhood watching him pitch. Bottom line is that he is now a below average pitcher and to get someone with the defensive skills of Izturis for him is a good move. Keeping Maddux for the "sentimental" value is what all the fans who are ok with the Cubs losing want. Sentimental value never has and never will put a run on the scoreboard or strike a player out. He was not pitching well enough to help this team win. He is a number 4 starter at best on most teams in baseball and several he would not get to smell the starting rotation. It only shows how bad the Cubs were this year that he was the #2 guy. The Cubs owed it to Maddux to give him a chance to be with a winner.

Izturis's defense measured

Submitted by cubsnet on Tue, 2006-08-01 14:21.

jthiemeyer, thanks for the thoughtful and cordial discussion. It's fun.

1 years worth of statistics do not accurately reflect a players career

Indeed. But I was responding to your point that the last several World Series champions won with defense from the middle infield. In response, I noted that in those World Series winning years, those middle infielders who may have largely been playing for their defense hit pretty well, too. Your response here is that those players' histories suggest that we could not have expected those players to hit well. That's true. But it amounts to hoping that the Cubs get lucky with Izturis and Cedeno next year by having those two hit better than we can reasonably expect them to hit. I'd rather not have to rely so much on chance.

(On Cabrera, true, he stunk before he got to Boston, but my point was that he hit decently enough for Boston, and so didn't negate his defense with poor offense during that stretch with Boston.)

Small sample sizes are bad for drawing long-term conclusions, but they're perfectly good for evaluating how the player played during that particular small sample size.

In my opinion, a run prevented by a defensive play that someone else could not have made is just as good as a run scored or a run batted in.

Absolutely. Baseball Prospectus tries to measure this with its Rate stat and its Fielder Runs Above Average (FRAA) stat. Here's Izturis's page. In his best offensive season, 2004, Izturis measured 6 runs below average. In that same year, he was 8 runs below average on defense. That's probably an anomoly, because in the surrounding years, 2003 and 2005, Izturis measured 11 and 8 runs above average, respectively, on defense. But, for his career, Izturis is 5 runs above average on defense, and 94 runs below average on offense. Unless he picks up his offense -- and he could, as he'll be just 27 next year -- Izturis's defense simply does not make up for his poor offense.

FRAA

Submitted by jthiemeyer on Wed, 2006-08-02 08:18.

I dont think this stat accurately reflects what I was talking about. Maybe it does, but I can't imagine a gold glove fielder having that small of an impact. For example, if the bases are loaded with 1 out and there is a ground ball up the middle that he is able to get to and turn a double play that someone else could not have gotten to, that saves 2 runs on that play alone and possibly more if the ball got through the middle and the inning continued. That is why I said that I dont think you can accurately measure that impact cause there is no way to predict those situations coming up. Being able to range further into the outfield on a bloop fly ball and make the catch and record an out as opposed to the ball dropping in and that batter then stealing second and scoring on a single. I have to believe that a gold glove infielder who not only commits very few errors, but also gets to balls that others would not get to I think would have an impact of about 20 runs scored per season. I could be way off, but that is what I think.

The flip side of that is the number of runs that score after a player makes an error. How many 5 runs innings have we seen that should have ended on a routine play with no runs scored that an error was made on by an "offensive" infielder who fields poorly. I previously mentioned the Todd Walker dropped double play balls, not to mention the other fielding errors he seems to make too often.

It is not just about keeping runners from scoring by making plays with people on base. Every pitcher will tell you that they pitch better from the wind up than from the stretch. Making a play to keep the lead off runner off the bases can have a huge impact on an inning too by allowing the pitcher to keep working from the wind up where you can get more power behind your pitches and be more effective.

I guess what I am ultimately getting at is that defense wins championships. You need players to bat at the top of the order that have speed to make things happen. Steal a base, get that pitcher thinking about the runner and losing concentration on the batter and making that mistake pitch that turns a game around. That is one of the things this team is missing. Todd Walker hits better than Izturis, but Walker can get 30 more singles in a year than Izturis and not have the impact that Izturis will. You wont find walker stealing second base and scoring on a single by the next batter. I have seen him end up stranded at 3rd base way too much this year. Anyone can score a run jogging around the bases after the next batter hit a home run, but very few players can create runs in an inning. Izturis has been one of these guys in his career. I dont know if Izturis is a #2 batter, that spot might ultimately go to Cedeno, but I think with Pierre in front of him and Lee behind him you will see his numbers increase dramaticaly.

I also dont think he is the answer to all of the Cubs problems. Hendry needs to forget the "sentimental" value of players like Wood and Prior and make the moves this off season that will improve this team. Many were crying last offseason when the Prior for Tejada trade talks started. I think we would be thrilled if that trade happened. I would take a guy who plays every day over a guy who when healthy plays every 5 days and has not been able to do that for several years now. This Cubs team leads the league in simulated innings pitched and Prior and Wood have pitched more simulated innings this year than they have pitched real innings. They will never be traded though cause the main concern of the Tribune Company is to fill the seats and they are great marketing pieces. The Cubs are a marketing machine and they do it so good, that people show up to support bad teams, year after year.

All that being said, I was [mad] to see Izturis watch his first inning hit last night to see if it stayed fair before he ran. I guess that makes him a perfect player for Dusty though since it seems to be a trait of all his players. It is sad when the guy who hustles the hardest on your team only plays every fifth game (Zambrano). These posts seem to end up way longer than I plan on them being when I start to type. Sorry for the length.

RE: FRAA

Submitted by cubsnet on Wed, 2006-08-02 10:24.

I have to believe that a gold glove infielder who not only commits very few errors, but also gets to balls that others would not get to I think would have an impact of about 20 runs scored per season.

Not a bad guess. Ozzie Smith had three seasons in which he reached at least 20 FRAA, and a number of other years in the high teens. Bill Mazeroski, considered the best defensive second baseman ever, also had three such years.

I guess what I am ultimately getting at is that defense wins championships

Actually, defense and offense wins championships. Unlike in basketball and football, in baseball, your defense cannot lead to runs scored on offense. The best teams do both well, or sometimes one exceptionally well and the other at least average.

If hunting was more like the MLB...

Submitted by diana on Sat, 2006-08-05 10:51.

Thought I'd share this funny hunting article.

Stand by your buddies by George Little

Sample:

With teams swapping players right and left, it occurred to me how the outdoor balance could be upset, and the experience itself drastically altered if player trades were part of the outdoor culture.

Click here to read the entire article

Also see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_to_b...

------

Photos from Ryne Sandberg Day at Wrigley Field

Meet Ronnie the Collie