The Cubs have a number of areas in which they need to improve upon their 15th ranked offense: second base, shortstop, centerfield, the bench. As Chris Sprow wrote in the Chicago Sports Review: "[F]or all the aplomb a hire like Piniella creates, the work that must be done with a messy roster is where Hendry will have to concentrate now, and the way he and Piniella can work together will tell a lot more about the future than a press conference, much less spring training."

So what about leftfield? What should the Cubs do with Matt Murton? It's one of the biggest -- or, at least, one of the most not immediately obvious -- decisions the Cubs face this winter. Do they go into spring training 2007, as they did spring training 2006, with Murton as their starter, or do they sign or trade for someone with a more established track record (e.g., Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano)?

We can go through the numbers, but here's the short of it: Murton was an average offensive player in 2006, which means he was below average for a leftfielder. The Cubs need better production out of their leftfielder in 2007, especially when the St. Louis Cardinals had a fellow first round draft pick and leftfielder -- Chris Duncan -- emerge this year to the tune of .293/.363/.589.

It's quite possible that Murton himself can provide the necessary upgrade. After all, while Duncan was putting up those excellent numbers, almost entirely in the second half, Murton was hitting .319/.390/.522 after the All-Star Break. That 911 OPS was good for 8th in the majors among leftfielders with at least 200 plate appearances post-Break. Of the seven players ahead of Murton during that time, only one -- Soriano -- is a possible acquisition target. None of the seven is as young as Murton (though Duncan is just five months older). Carlos Lee, another possible acquisition target, was 41 OPS points below Murton, and will make a lot more money, preventing the Cubs from using money on other needed upgrade areas, most notably starting pitching. At least if the Cubs targeted Soriano, he could play a different position -- either second base or possibly centerfield (he was a 106 Rate2 leftfielder in 2006).

Given his minor league track record and his early major league success, Murton is likely to continue to improve over the next 2-3 years. Take a look at his comparables through his age-24 season. Three of the first four are Kirk Gibson, Bobby Abreu, and Wally Moon, all of whom have had or are having good careers. (The fourth is Danny Litwhiler, a WWII-era player who ended up with nice career rate numbers, but who only played three full seasons.)

So is going after Carlos Lee a bad move? No, not if the money and years are right (and they may not be). The Cubs need to do a better job of stockpiling talent. Just because they may think they are set at a position (SS, Ronny Cedeno) doesn't mean they shouldn't have additional talent at that position (instead of Neifi Perez). Having Lee (or Soriano), Murton, and Jacque Jones manning the corner outfield spots is better than having just two of the three along with someone like Angel Pagan. Jacque Jones absolutely needs a platoon partner, even if Piniella doesn't like them. Murton could fill that role, while also spot starting in leftfield, pinch-hitting, and being ready to take over in case of an injury. The Cubs also need to be adept at changing directions should Murton ultimately prove the better everyday player over Jones, assuming they do acquire an everyday leftfielder in place of Murton.