Keith Law on the Soriano Signing

ESPN.com's Keith Law doesn't think (sub. req'd) the Alfonso Soriano signing was a smart move. He makes some good points, though I'm going to qualify them a bit (my comments in italics):

As good a year as Alfonso Soriano just had, there are several problems with this deal for the Cubs:

  1. He doesn't address the major reason the Cubs couldn't score runs in 2006: their complete inability to put men on base. That was a big reason, yes, but the Cubs were also much closer to the bottom of the NL in slugging percentage, save Pittsburgh, than they were to the top, especially until Aramis Ramirez and Matt Murton got hot.

  2. Soriano is coming off a career year that was well out of line with his performance in the prior two years, so any expectation that he's going to improve is misguided; the salary he's earning presumes that he'll at least hold his level. No, he likely won't improve, but his 2006 level, while better than 2004-05, was in line with his performance in 2002-03.

  3. If Soriano is going to play center, the Cubs are asking him to play somewhere he's never played as a professional, and they block their top prospect, Felix Pie. If he's going to play left, which he played quite well in 2006, the Cubs push that guy with the .365 OBP, Matt Murton, to the bench. Center field carries risk; left field takes a lineup that doesn't create base runners and exacerbates the problem. Unless the Cubs send Murton and a prospect or two for a very good starting pitcher, it would definitely be a mistake to either trade Murton or not given him some sort of semi-regular playing time. As I wrote previously, Murton's 911 OPS after the All-Star break was good for 8th in the majors among leftfielders with at least 200 plate appearances post-Break.

Meanwhile, doesn't the fact that the Dodgers are apparently going to give Juan Pierre $45M over 5 years make the Soriano signing look not as expensive?

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Pierre

If the Soriano signing is highly questionable, the Pierre signing is completely and utterly absurd. But, of course, it's completely predictable that the market would overvalue someone with Pierre's rather modest skills.

I think the end result of this crazy spending environment will be to help teams, like the A's, that have the ability to identify undervalued players. Market value or not, giving someone with Juan Pierre's value a 5-year deal just doesn't make a team much better.

Keith Law agrees

Keith Law agrees (sub. req'd):

The early contender for the worst contract of the offseason has to be the five-year deal just handed to Juan Pierre by the Los Angeles Dodgers . . . .