Cubs Sign Lilly to Four Year, $40M Contract
At
1:37pm CT this afternoon,
ESPN's
Jerry Crasnick reported that
Ted Lilly
had "crossed the Blue Jays off his list Wednesday and has
narrowed his
possible destinations to the Cubs and Yankees, his agent, Larry O'Brien,
told ESPN.com at the winter meetings. O'Brien, who is seeking a four-year, $40
million deal, plans to meet with Yankees GM Brian Cashman on Wednesday night."
At 3:55pm, Jayson Stark reported that the Yankees were still "weighing whether they were even going to make Lilly an official offer."
Then, at 7:15pm, Tim Kurkjian reported: "Agent Larry O'Brien walked into the lobby and announced 'Ted Lilly's a Cub!'" While Jim Hendry was hooked up to an EKG machine in the hospital (hat tip: 1060west). The Yankees apparently "informed the 30-year-old Lilly on Wednesday night they would not bid for him, choosing to concentrate their efforts on Andy Pettitte." Which left the Cubs bidding against themselves, though of course they would have seen other teams enter the bidding if they had come down from their 4-year, $40M offer, which is what Lilly signed for, pending a physical. And contrary to ESPN's report, CBS Sportsline's Scott Miller reports that it was Lilly who canceled the meeting with the Yankees. However,
Here is what Lilly has done over the past three seasons with Toronto:
|
SEASON
|
GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | W | L | ERA | ERA+ |
|
2004
|
32 | 197.3 | 171 | 89 | 26 | 89 | 168 | 12 | 10 | 4.06 | 120 |
| 2005 | 25 | 126.3 | 135 | 78 | 23 | 58 | 96 | 10 | 11 | 5.56 | 80 |
| 2006 | 32 | 181.7 | 179 | 87 | 28 | 81 | 160 | 15 | 13 | 4.31 | 109 |
| 3-year Avg. | 29.7 | 168.3 | 161.7 | 84.7 | 25.7 | 76.0 | 141.3 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 4.53 | 106 |
Lilly had left biceps tendonitis in 2005 that caused him to miss starts, and likely contributed to his decline in performance that season as well. He rebounded nicely in 2006, when he made $3.1M, and his three-year average puts his ERA at 6% above league average. Despite starting at least 31 games in three seasons, Lilly has never thrown 200 innings in a season. He will turn 31 in January.
Lilly is not a $10M star, but he will almost certainly help the Cubs over the life of the contract, just by the virtue of being slightly above average.
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NOT trying too hard to be positive
he will almost certainly help the Cubs over the life of the contract, just by the virtue of being slightly above average.
He looks like just another guy who walks more than 4 per nine and gives up too many homers to me. And he doesn't even have the virtue of being an innings eater.
If there was a reasonable possibility of getting 750 or so innings out of him during the life of the deal, I'd be a lot closer to agreeing with you. But that seems like a big stretch; even without the injury in 2005 he wouldn't have gotten there over the last four.
So, I have to ask, he'll help the Cubs relative to what? At best, he replaces what Maddux gave them, meaning that the rotation is still made up of a #1 starter and a bunch of #4 and #5 starters: Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Miller, and Starter to be Named. That doesn't seem any better than what they've run out there for the past 2 years. It still looks like we'll be counting on Prior and/or Wood to save the day yet again.
Plus, in the big picture, this deal seems like kind of an embarrassment for an organization who had so many promising pitching prospects in the minors just a couple of years ago. It's no secret that they've had trouble developing position players, but now the pitching situation looks so bleak that they have to give a guy who's a stretch to throw 180 "slightly above average" innings a year a 4-year/$40 million deal?
Re: NOT trying too hard to be positive
he'll help the Cubs relative to what?
Marshall, Marmol, Guzman, Mateo, Rusch, Walrond, Ryu, Williams. All of whom started games for the Cubs last year, and posted ERAs ranging from 13% to 45% below league average. Sometimes being league average is good enough, if the team has enough other players that are well above average. And Lilly has actually been above average in 3 of the past 5 seasons, average in the 4th season, and below average in the injury-plagued 2005 season. In 2 of those seasons, Lilly posted an ERA 20% above league average. Granted, you want him to be able to throw more innings than he's shown he can throw, but I'll take 180 innings of above average ball. I wouldn't pay $10M for it, but I'll let the Cubs pay that much. And it's a better use of the money than overpaying for middle relievers and utility players.
Re: pitching prospects
Plus, in the big picture, this deal seems like kind of an embarrassment for an organization who had so many promising pitching prospects in the minors just a couple of years ago.
You are undoubtedly right here. The Cubs' strategy of stockpiling pitching prospects has not gone well.
The Lilly deal after the Meche deal
The Ted Lilly contract has to look better after the Royals gave 5 years and $55M to Gil Meche, no?
re: Meche
I frankly don't find these kinds of comparisons very persuasive. For one thing, if I buy a Camry for $50,000, it's not a good deal just because my neighbor got suckered into paying $55,000 for a Corolla. And for another, no matter the category (except for "Stadium Built in the Middle of Nowhere During the Seventies"), any comparison with the Royals is going to come out pretty favorable. They're a terrible franchise with a history of terrible decision making.
Honestly, it's like no one in MLB (especially the Cubs) remembers the last time this happened, after the 2000 season. There were some truly ridiculous contracts signed then, and even the teams that signed the two unquestioned superstars that year (Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez) seemed to regret those deals before long. Say nothing about the Darren Dreiforts and Mike Hamptons (and Todd Hundleys!) of the world.
There's two things that we need to keep in mind:
1) The market can and obviously does change, and
2) People who buy during seller's markets tend to regret their investments pretty quickly, for obvious reasons.
re: re: Meche
But Brian, why ruin all the fun with realistic expectations and talk of long-term consequences? There seems to be no limit to the Cubs' payroll right now (Zambrano and Prior don't even have their contracts yet, and by my count the Cubs are at $94.5M). And the Cubs are signing everyone they want. And, for once, who they want is not largely made up of middle relievers and utility guys.
I frankly don't find these kinds of comparisons very persuasive. For one thing, if I buy a Camry for $50,000, it's not a good deal just because my neighbor got suckered into paying $55,000 for a Corolla.
So true. I should have explained myself more. I made my comment in light of the fact that the Cubs had expressed interest in Meche. If 5 years, $55M is what it was going to take for the Cubs to sign him, I'd rather have the Lilly contract.
re: Meche
But Brian, why ruin all the fun with realistic expectations and talk of long-term consequences?
Oh, great, so I'm the bad guy here. :)
I think it's because I secretly want to be a GM. And also, since I've spent the past however many years not worried at all about their payroll, this offseason is really driving me insane because it strikes me as a solution to a problem that doesn't exist (not spending enough), while not addressing the problems that do exist (player development, OBP, mistaking role players for starters, issuing too many walks).
While Jim Hendry was hooked up to an EKG machine in the hospital
Do you get the feeling that this story will change in people's minds as the years go by and we'll be hearing that the Cub's GM was receiving CPR while signing the player to a contract...
------------
Photos from Ryne Sandberg Day at Wrigley Field
Who Knows?
Well if nothing else, Hendry gets a medal for dedication to his job. The Cubs were a little desperate, given the dearth of existing starters and the thin market, so why blame them for being a little pricey in their bidding? And I sure can understand Lilly wanting a sure thing in a big city market. So we just have to wait, hope and see. What is the old theory about if you give typewriters to enough chimpanzees you might get a good poem out of one of them? (On the other hand, that Izturis for Maddux deal is looking pretty dumb just now.)
Respectfully,
FEARLESS BEAR
Dayn Perry on the Lilly Signing
FOXSports.com's Dayn Perry writes:
New Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly @ Chicago Chop House
Stella's Column
January 2, 2007
BY STELLA FOSTER Sun-Times Columnist
http://www.suntimes.com/news/foster/194032,CST-NWS-stella02.article
Photos from Ryne Sandberg's Chicago Cubs jersey number retirement ceremony at Wrigley Field