Hendry and Fleita Hype Pie
More indications that Felix Pie has a good chance of leaving spring training this year as the Cubs' starting center fielder. (See also "Is Pie the Man in Center?") MLB.com reports:
The Cubs will have their first full-squad workout in one month. Hendry isn't finished yet."In a perfect world, I'd like to tinker with the outfield," Hendry said. "We have a very solid group. We're counting on our young kid, Felix Pie, being a factor, whether it's Opening Day or down the road shortly after. When you get out your wish list, you can't make it all about buying new players. You want to have your own guys develop, too."
Additionally, Player Development Director Oneri Fleita says that Pie "will be given a chance to come in and have some fun. Let's see what happens."
It appears that the Cubs will not expect Pie to hit much. MLB.com also quotes Fleita as saying, "In this lineup, we don't need him to hit, we need his defense."
I'm not sure what Fleita means by "in this lineup." The Cubs haven't had a top five offense since 1998. Are Alfonso Soriano and Mark DeRosa enough to boost the Cubs to that level when combined with a significant dropoff from Juan Pierre to Pie (if such a dropoff were to occur)?
In any event, if the Cubs really are willing to let Pie flounder at the plate as long as he plays good defense, they would be following a model utilized by the south side team last year. In 2006, the White Sox played Brian Anderson in center field in 134 games (106 of them starts), while he was terrible at the plate by any offensive metric (65 OPS+, 3.1 RC/G, .212 EqA). Anderson did reward the White Sox, however, with excellent defense. Baseball Prospectus measured him at a 112 Rate2, while Hardball Times awarded him with 4.1 fielding Win Shares (good for the amount of his playing time).
So how good is Pie's defense? Jeff Sackmann attempted to quantify minor leaguers' 2006 defense, as outlined in this Baseball Analysts article, and Pie does come out as one of the better center fielders in the high minors.
That said, the Cubs can't, and certainly won't, completely ignore Pie's offense. It is doubtful they would allow a season-long Brian Anderson-level performance. Along those lines, Pie's splits are troubling. His power completely drops off against lefthanded pitchers. He had an 849 OPS against righties in 2006 and a 649 OPS against lefties, with around two-thirds of the difference being due to a reduction in isolated power. If Pie continues that performance, he will need a platoon partner.
Back in December, Kyle Johansen at CubsHub.com suggested Ryan Theriot as a platoon partner in center field, an option the Cubs should keep open.
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Pie and PECOTA
Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus put the new PECOTA cards online today, and their system is very high on Pie for 2007. His weighted mean projection is for him to hit .288/.342/.480, for a .271 EQA - with solid defense.
If he comes anywhere close to that, it'd be amazing for the Cubs. Food for thought.
Check out Eric Patterson's projection, too
Wow, I'm a bit amazed at that projection for Pie. Even more interestingly, Eric Patterson's projection is even higher: .287/.351/.465, with a .280 EqA.
Which makes a Felix Pie/Eric Patterson platoon in center field even more intriguing.