The Fundamental Unfairness of Baseball's Divisional Alignment

January 28, 2007 by cubsnet

The Chicago Cubs begin each season with a significant disadvantage in their quest to win the World Series: they play in the National League Central Division, which has six teams. All else being equal (and ignoring the wild card), the Cubs have a 16.7% chance of reaching the postseason at the beginning of the season. The same is true, of course, for every other team in the NL Central. Each team in every other division save the American League West, however, has a 20% of winning its division; the AL West teams have a 25% chance.

Consequently, the Atlanta Braves, for instance, have approximately a 20% greater chance of winning its division than the Cubs have of winning the NL Central. The Texas Rangers have a 50% greater chance.

There is, in my mind, no greater blight on major league baseball than the fundamental unfairness of its divisional alignment. And no one of importance ever says a word about it.

Given the opportunity to ask Bud Selig one question, and have it answered, it would be this: "No other major professional sport places different numbers of teams in its various divisions. They do not do such a thing because it would be uncommonly silly. We would not set up a Little League like that. Why does Major League Baseball?"

He would, I suspect, give me some sort of answer that focuses on regional rivalries. He might even tell me that radical realignment is difficult because the owners would be resistant and the DH issue causes problems. All of which would ignore what fairness dictates.

If we subscribe to the idea that it is fine to have six teams in one division and four in another, then--for us to remain logically consistent--we would also have to be fine with having eight teams in one division and two in another. Any line drawn other than placing the same number of teams in each division is an arbitrary one.

What about the wild card? It certainly increases each team's chance of reaching the postseason. But, again, because of MLB's league alignment, the Toronto Blue Jays, for instance, have a 14% greater chance of making the playoffs as a Wild Card than the Cubs do, simply because MLB has decreed that there shall be fewer teams in the American League than the National League.

What can be done? Simple: put 15 teams in each league. The "problem" with this solution is that it will require that there be an interleague series happening at all times. You cannot very well have one team from each league sitting out the final three days of the season because they do not have anyone within their league to play. You also cannot hand out three day breaks within the middle of the season. Still, an always-present interleague series is much less of a problem than the current situation. Moreover, interleague play is with us for the foreseeable future and this solution would be much less of an issue today than it would have been seven or eight years ago.

Major League Baseball could also expand by two teams, creating four 4-team divisions in each league. That is my preferred solution. Portland, Las Vegas, and San Antonio all might be major league ready, and New York City could easily handle a third team. Pick two of those four.

Whatever the solution, resolve this problem. Now. I shall forthwith harp on it periodically until then.

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