Burnitz Must Reverse Walk Rate Decline
Rob Glowacki at Behind the Ivy writes that Jeromy Burnitz has "pretty much stopped taking walks." Well, his walk rate certainly has gone down:
| Year | PA | BB/PA |
| 1999 | 580 | .157 |
| 2000 | 686 | .144 |
| 2001 | 651 | .123 |
| 2002 | 550 | .106 |
| 2003 | 505 | .069 |
| 2004 | 606 | .096 |
Burnitz's
walk rate dropped 56% from 1999 to 2003. 2003 was a particularly down year
for Burnitz (at least for walk rate; it was actually much better overall than
his dismal 2002). His walk rate went back up 39% last year from 2003.
(Even if you take out the effects of Coors Field, Baseball Prospectus
has him at a
.094 rate last year.) The total decline from 1999 to 2004 is 39%.
During that time frame, excepting his -- again, dismal -- 2002 season, Burnitz's
power has stayed relatively consistent. He's averaged between 14.2 and
18.2 home runs per at-bat.
Burnitz will almost certainly show some decent power for the Cubs in 2005. Burnitz has never been a high average hitter. How valuable he is will depend in large part on whether he is able to reverse the serious and consistent decline in his walk rate.
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