Burnitz Must Reverse Walk Rate Decline

Rob Glowacki at Behind the Ivy writes that Jeromy Burnitz has "pretty much stopped taking walks."  Well, his walk rate certainly has gone down:

Year PA BB/PA
1999 580 .157
2000 686 .144
2001 651 .123
2002 550 .106
2003 505 .069
2004 606 .096

Burnitz's walk rate dropped 56% from 1999 to 2003.  2003 was a particularly down year for Burnitz (at least for walk rate; it was actually much better overall than his dismal 2002).  His walk rate went back up 39% last year from 2003.  (Even if you take out the effects of Coors Field, Baseball Prospectus has him at a .094 rate last year.)  The total decline from 1999 to 2004 is 39%.  During that time frame, excepting his -- again, dismal -- 2002 season, Burnitz's power has stayed relatively consistent.  He's averaged between 14.2 and 18.2 home runs per at-bat.

Burnitz will almost certainly show some decent power for the Cubs in 2005.  Burnitz has never been a high average hitter.  How valuable he is will depend in large part on whether he is able to reverse the serious and consistent decline in his walk rate.