Is Zambrano expendable?
Phil Rogers suggests in today's Tribune that Carlos Zambrano may be expendable. I don't usually dwell to much on anything Rogers has to say. I think he is off base more than he is on it, but even the blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while, and I have to admit that I have been thinking the same thing about Zambrano for a few weeks now. It's a fact that for the third straight season Big-Z's BB, HR and ERA are heading in the wrong direction. It's also a fact that Zambrano has come up MIA in some of the biggest Cubs' games since 2003. Rogers is right. Losing Zambrano would not exactly be like losing Maddux.
I am also old school in that I don't believe in giving pitchers more that three years at a time when it comes to contracts. As dissapointed as we are about Wood and Prior, imagine how much worse we would all feel if they had been given Zito type long term extensions immeiately after 2003. It's not a stretch to think the Cubs would give Zambrano a seven or eight year deal only to have him get injured.
We have three servicable starters locked up through next season, and our farm system is not exactly barren of pitching talent. I'm not sure what is going to be out there in terms of free agency this next winter or what could possibly be acquired through trade, but regardless, it isn't much harder for me to imagine life without Zambrano any more than it is to imagine life without Wood and Prior.
JMHO,
MDC
Just a thought...
Never thought I'd even consider this - especially given Big Z's tendency to a slow start... but what could Z bring in a trade? Could Jones and Izturis (though I'm not sure they'd add too much) bring say, A-Rod to the Cubs?
I know, I know, the California sun has baked the brain. I'm gettin out to Wrigley in July for a few Old Styles... any thoughts?
Zambrano for ARod
I don't think adding in Jones and Izturis would get such a deal done, given Zambrano's relatively poor performance this year and Rodriguez's consistently great performance. The Yankees don't have a lot of need for either Jones or Izturis.
Zambrano
Here we go again, jumping off cliffs. Zambrano is a highly talented, highly motivated young pitcher. Settle down. He will bring it around. What's incredible is we now have real pitching rotation!!
Respectfully,
FEARLESS BEAR
Zambrano
Talk of trades seems premature to me. I think the best course of action here is to play out the season, and see what happens. If he turns it around and pitches well, I'm all for the long-term deal. If he doesn't, then I'd want to find out what's wrong and sign him to a lesser deal, if that's possible.
I do worry, like everyone else I'm sure, that something isn't quite right with his arm. In fact, I wonder if there hasn't been something a little off for a couple years now, and Z has managed to hide it from everyone. He's managed to get good results, but he's had to expend a lot more effort to get them with each coming year, and I have little confidence that the Hendry/Baker/Rothschild regime made any attempt to figure out why.
But, if he turns it around this year, that puts a lot of those fears to rest. I think we just have to wait and see.
RE: Zambrano
Yes, Zambrano is clearly not the same pitcher he was in 2003, when he allowed 9 home runs all year. He's at 12 already this year.
I think he'll turn it around yet this year, but, as you imply, there's little reason to hand him a long-term contract right now.
Is a trading Zambrano realistic?
I did not mean to imply in my post that the Cubs should specifically look to trade Zambrano. Although, that is a possibility to consider. I was trying to imply that the Cubs could look at trade options this winter should they choose to allow Zambrano to walk away as a free agent. I don't think trading Zambrano before the non-waivers trade deadline is realistic for several reasons.
A. I don't think the Cubs will be far enough out first in the NLCD to be effectively out of the playoffs. Zambrano's performance is likely to become more acceptable at some point, and it may well help them get over the hump.
B. His value is diminished by the fact that he is not signed through 2008. If he were going to be traded, the time to do it was at the winter meetings this past December. At this point, the Cubs are limited to trading Zambrano to a very few select teams that could afford to resign him and can afford to part with the top prospects and/or young major leaguers it would take. The Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers are the only big market clubs with both the means to resign him and the top young talent it would take to make it wortwhile for the Cubs.
C. Trading Zambrano is a factor of A & B. If Zambrano improves, all else being equal, the Cubs ability to stay in the playoff hunt up to the very end improves. If Zambrano continues to be up and down, the Cubs may fall out of contention, but his trade value diminishes. Lets say Zambrano improves, but other factors result in the Cubs falling out of the race. Things might open up to make trading Zambrano more viable. A small market team might be convinced to rent Zambrano for a couple of months if they were sure he was what they needed to get over the hump, but a big market club can afford to take both a short and long term approach to Zambrano regardless.
So there you have it. Trading Zambrano is not easy no matter how you look at it. It may be easiest for the Cubs to just let Zambrano walk and take the draft picks.