Bonds' Longevity
It takes sustained excellence to reach 756 home runs. Here's an interesting look at Barry Bonds' longevity compared to his rookie year peers:
Bonds debuted as a 21-year-old center fielder for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1986. He hit .223/.330/.416 in 113 games that year, which doesn't look so good, but actually translates to an adjusted OPS 1.5% above league average. He also stole 36 bases in 43 attempts that year and played above average defense. According to Baseball Prospectus, Bonds was 5.7 wins above replacement that year, his worst, excepting 2005's injury-plagued year. That performance resulted in his finishing 6th in the National League Rookie of the Year race. Bonds did not receive a single first place vote.
Here are the players who finished ahead of Bonds, followed by their last year in the majors and their wins above replacement in 1986:
1. Todd Worrell--1997--7.4
2. Robby Thompson--1996--6.2
3. Kevin Mitchell--1998--4.1
4. Charlie Kerfeld--1990--3.9
5. Will Clark--2000--4.7
Bonds has lasted 7 more years than the next closer player. (Barry Larkin, though just playing in 41 games, is also part of that rookie class; he retired after the 2004 season.) That's impressive.
Looking again at the ROY race that season, Bonds deserved more consideration. Kevin Mitchell received one first place vote, and Todd Worrell received all of the other 23 first place votes. Worrell deserved those first place votes, having led the league in games and saves while throwing 2.08 ERA ball in 103.2 relief innings. Thompson's advantage over Bonds is attributable to his having played 30 more games and his having played a very good second base. Mitchell was not as good as Bonds, but played on that great Mets team.







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