Premature Conclusions on 2007
There are 5 weeks of baseball left in this season, and the Cubs, setting atop the NL Central by 1.5 games, are in the hunt for a playoff spot, but regardless of that outcome, I am prepared to declare this season a success in my book. Why, might you ask, do I feel that way? Well, to be honest, they've been fun to watch.
The ghosts of Andy MacPhail, Sammy Sosa and Dusty Baker are still hanging around, but they are slowly being exorcised. There have been times when this team looked fundamentally awful like the teams of the recent past, but there have also been times, especially in June and July, when this team has played very solid baseball.
There is no doubt that the pitching is carrying this team. The Cubs are 5 out of 30 in ERA, 16 out of 30 in RS and 16 out of 30 in FPCT. In 2006, they were 28 of 30 in RS, 24 of 30 in ERA and 22 out of 30 in FPCT. There is still room for improvement, especially on offense and defense, but they have improved, and it shows on the field.
We aren't seeing as many botched plays in the field. They are not running themselves into outs with mental errors on the base paths as much. They are also a more selective team at the plate as evidenced by a collective OBP of .329, which is 19 out of 30. In 2006, the Cubs collective OBP was .319 for 29 out of 30.
The biggest difference I see in this team versus previous teams has been accountability. The manager demands it, and it would appear from newspaper accounts that they are not only accountable to Piniella but each other as well, but that is how all winning teams are.
I really like the way youth has been blended in with veterans on this team as well. It reminds me of 1984 and 1989. This has been mostly out of necessity because of poor play and injuries, but at least it has been done. Under the previous administration, veterans played no matter how bad they stank just because they were veterans. This has not been the case with Piniella. He has been as fair as he could be with everyone.
The only young player on this team with anything to really complain about is Matt Murton, and he has not exactly helped himself either at the plate or in the field.
Ryan Theriot, minus the 2006 SLG, is proving that he is no fluke. Mike Fontenot is showing that he could be a solid bench player for this team for a long time. Rich Hill, Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol have grown up before our very eyes this summer. Felix Pie has shown glimpses of what he could be next season.
There are some things I don't like about this team. I feel this team will later regret giving Soriano that contract, and I feel they will sooner regret giving Marquis that other contract.
I can't help but feel that this team would still be right where it is now without Soriano. He is not the primadonna that Sosa was, at least not yet, but his free swinging ways hurt this club at the top of the order. I don't think he should be allowed to dictate where he should hit. I also don't like that he has become Felix Pie's defacto mentor in the same way Sosa became Corey Patterson's. Soriano's bad example may end up retarding Pie's development in the same way Sosa's did Patterson's. I also wonder how Murton might have responded had he been handed the left fielders job outright, but we will never know that now.
Jason Marquis has been the only blight on what has been a solid rotation. I understand what they saw in Ted Lilly. He was bound to improve after getting out of the AL East, but Marquis just flat out sucks, and I can only hope and pray that he does not stay in a Cubs uniform the entire length of that other contract. I can only speculate that, had the Cubs signed Gil Meche instead of Marquis, Meche might well be 11-7 with a 3.85 ERA versus 7-11 with a 3.85 ERA. It surely would have been worth the difference in contracts.
McDonough and Hendry certainly took some risks this past year, but then they really had no choice if they wanted to keep their jobs. I congratulate them on a job well done so far. It really looks as though the Cubs problems under MacPhail were pretty much all MacPhail's doing from letting Maddux go, to purposely deciding to build around Sosa, and finally bringing in Dusty Baker.
I'll admit I was rooting for Joe Girardi to get the job, but Piniella, even with his volatile reputation, looks to have been the right choice. That blow up in June was not an accident. I believe Piniella did that on purpose to take the focus off the teams' problems and put it on himself. It worked, and I hope it won't be necessary again. You never want to go to the well to many times.
I like that problem children Barrett and Izturis were shipped out. Hendry saw a need, and he did something about it. I also like that their exits were handled gracefully.
This team may back its way into the playoffs like they did in 2001 and 2003, but unlike those teams, I think this team may not regress in 2008 the way those teams did in 2002 and 2004. I just get the feeling that McDonough, Hendry and Piniella are onto something, and I hope they are given the chance to continue it by whomever the new owner is. I think they have already earned it no matter what happends between now and October.







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