Cubs v. Diamondbacks Foreward

Submitted by cubsnet on Wed, 2007-10-03 00:00.

There will be no CubsNet.com NLDS preview. After all, who am I to outwrite the previews proffered by Nate Silver, David Pinto, Al Yellon, and Marc Hulet / Bryan Smith? (For my money, Silver's is the best. Come to think of it, it is my money, as I'm paying for the BP subscription.) So, instead, what you get from CubsNet.com is a NLDS foreward. I am not the writer of the main story. I am merely anticipating the next page like the rest of you.

The Cubs outscored the Diamondbacks and gave up fewer runs than the Diamondbacks.

The Cubs have just an average offense (8th in the NL), but it is significantly better than Arizona's. As Silver wrote, "The Diamondbacks . . . have one of the worst lineups ever for a team that reached the playoffs, a group that resembles the 1988 Dodgers sans Kirk Gibson." Not only did the Diamondbacks finish 14th in the NL in runs scored and not have a single player, regular or otherwise, with an adjusted OPS at least 5% above league average other than pitcher Micah Owings, but Arizona is starting former Cub Augie Ojeda at second base.

Ojeda once hit the ball to the outfield. Or at least that is the rumor. He does lead the league in scrappiness. But don't go thinking that he is anywhere close to the all-time record holder in that category, Rex Hudler. (Craig Counsell is disqualified because of his batting stance.)

Arizona's bullpen was very, very good this year, and a large reason why they finished with 90 wins despite being outscored. Former Cub Juan Cruz was a part of that, but the guy the Cubs really don't want to see is closer Jose Valverde. That said, the Cubs' triumvirate of Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, and Bobby Howry makes the difference here not so large. Against a better offense, I would be worried about Ryan Dempster.

Brandon Webb is the single most important player in this series. The best pitcher on either team, he erases the Cubs' expected offensive advantage in the two games he will start (if it goes to five games).

Derek Smart of Cub Town masterly (playoff writing really brings out the best in good writers) recalls a great managerial decision by Lou Piniella earlier in the year. Piniella was a big upgrade in the offseason. More evidence: a) he will be starting a September call-up behind the plate because said call-up is the best man for the spot and b) he will be going with a three-man rotation for this series, dropping the struggling Jason Marquis to long-relief. If Dusty Baker is still the manager, Geovany Soto does not even make the postseason roster in place of Henry Blanco.

Prediction: Bruce Miles is right. The Cubs sweep.

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Tonight is key

Submitted by cubsfaninky on Wed, 2007-10-03 13:37.

I like Nate Silver's article, but all the stats in the world don't mean a thing if it doesn't get done on the field. If the Cubs win game 1, I almost cannot see how they could lose this series based on the numbers, but tonight really concerns me.

Zambrano has a 5.40 ERA in 16.2 post-season innings. I simply refuse to believe that he has the mental make up to be a big game pitcher. My guess is that he implodes tonight, and his implosion will carry over into game 4. So I'm looking at Lilly having to get two Quality Starts, games 2 and 5, and Hill getting one Quality Start, game 3, in order for the Cubs to win this series, but that could actually happen.

Cubs win in 5 by winning games 2, 3 and 5, but after losing both of Zambrano's starts, we will all be scratching our heads as to why he was given that contract, which I still think they had to do given his upside.

RE: Tonight is key

Submitted by cubsnet on Wed, 2007-10-03 14:02.

Agreed that tonight is a big game, as any Game 1 in a five-game series is. But if Zambrano loses, it won't necessarily be because he had a mental breakdown.

In any event, as you note, Game 1 won't end the series, no matter what happens. See Padres, Cubs, 1984.

1984 NLCS

Submitted by cubsfaninky on Wed, 2007-10-03 17:06.

It's funny that you should mention that. I was just looking at the box scores from that series this morning.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1984_NLCS.shtml

The Cubs, even though they won 96 games to the Padres's 92, got messed over by the commissioner on home field advantage because Wrigley did not have lights, but when you look at those two teams on paper, they were pretty evenly matched. The series could have gone either way.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/1984.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/1984.shtml

Zambrano

Submitted by cubsfaninky on Wed, 2007-10-03 17:18.

You know the fact that I just talked about an 18 game winner as having upside should say it all. Zambrano has not reached his potential. In fact, you could make a case that he has regressed over the last few years.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4499

Zambrano is the classic million dollar arm with the five cent head pitcher. If I am in a must win situation, as game 4 could be for us, he is not the very last guy I would want out there, that would be Marquis, but he is not the first or second either.

re: Zambrano

Submitted by Brian C on Wed, 2007-10-03 22:21.

Well, Zambrano got the job done tonight, giving up only one run (and one walk) and throwing only 85 pitches before being pulled after six innings. Which, I should add, was a perfectly defensible decision by Piniella.

re: re: Zambrano

Submitted by cubsfaninky on Thu, 2007-10-04 04:17.

Hey, I'm a man. I can own up to my words. He pitched a great 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th innings. Of course, he almost proved me right in the 1st and 2nd innings, but luckily, he settled down after that. If he can pull that performance off in a game 4 in Wrigley when it is going to count even more, I'll take it all back. Regardless, we are in a hole now, and we have to win tonight.

Webb

Submitted by cubsnet on Thu, 2007-10-04 06:58.

Unfortunately, my comment about Webb erasing the Cubs' expected offensive advantage proved accurate. Things might have been a bit different had, in the 5th inning, Carlos Zambrano's line drive not gone right to Stephen Drew and Alfonso Soriano's line drive not gone straight to Chris Young.

re: Webb

Submitted by cubsfaninky on Thu, 2007-10-04 08:03.

It was Arizona's night, and that is all you could say about it. Every time we had a chance to score, we either struck out or hit one right at somebody. However, we have to win tonight. So the pressure is now squarely on the Cubs.

TBS's coverage

Submitted by cubsnet on Thu, 2007-10-04 09:18.

I thought Dick Stockton and Ron Darling were . . . how to put this charitably . . . in need of improvement. This diary and the comments at Bleed Cubbie Blue go through some of the mistakes they made, plus the fact that Darling really did not add anything to the broadcast.