I'm Glad that Phil Rogers Doesn't Make Out the Lineup Card
The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers says that the long-rumored trade for Brian Roberts "is almost certainly going to happen," perhaps yet this week. (Hat tip: Bleed Cubbie Blue.) The Cubs may have to give up Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Ronny Cedeno. That's a steep price for a good player, but who has only been an above-average league hitter in two of the five seasons he has played at least 100 games. Especially since it eliminates the top competition for Ryan Dempster in the fifth starter's slot.
In any event, Rogers goes on to speculate that the lineup would look like this: Roberts, Ryan Theriot, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto and Felix Pie.
He does not explain why it would be a good idea to put the Cubs' best hitter (Lee) in the sixth spot and their worst hitter (Theriot) in the second spot. The much more likely scenario would have Soriano and Roberts hitting in the 1-2 spots.
Side question: If that ends up being the lineup, when is the last time the Cubs had a lineup that fast.
UPDATE: (Joe at View from the Bleachers has similar concerns about Dempster (and Marquis) losing competition.
UPDATE II: AllCubs.com is also worried that the rumored trade overvalues Roberts.
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Theriot is the worst hitter?
Try Pie.
I would swap Lee and Soriano. Actually, I'm not so concerned about having a Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano hitting back to back. They all hit RHP reasonably well so I don't see the need to break them up with a lefty.
I prefer
Roberts
Theriot
Fukudome
Ramirez
Lee
Soriano
Soto
Pie
or
Roberts
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Lee
Fukudome
Soriano
Soto
Pie
RE: Theriot is the worst hitter?
Throughout their minor league careers, Pie was a better hitter than Theriot. I think there's a much better than even chance that Pie will outhit Theriot in 2008, even though Theriot will be 28 and Pie will be 23.
For what it's worth, here are their ZiPS projections:
Pie: .269 / .321 / .429
Theriot: .266 / .324 /.348
What I would do
Roberts
Lee
Soriano
Ramirez
Fukudome
Theriot
Soto
Pie
Pitcher
Lee can still hit for power in the 2 spot but we really don't need to ask him to do anything different there because he is such a good avg. hitter. Dropping Soriano to 6 would not be right. He led the team in HRs!!! He also nearly batted .300...this in my eyes would maximize everyone's best talents.
Idea of Lee hitting 2nd
The idea of hitting Lee 2nd is intriguing. High on-base guy with decent speed and some pop. That's what you like out of your second hitter.
Of course, there's some unwritten rule that 6'5" first basemen don't hit 1st or 2nd in the order.
#2
Chris
The Cubs lineup in general is not a typical one. Soriano is a 30 hr guy and no other leadoff man in the league has that power. I just think Lee in the 2 spot would produce there more than any other 2 guy we have. But, I do want Roberts bad...even though Dero is a great player. This is a good problem to have if Roberts does become a Cub.
Only have one Lee... Here's my lineup w/ Roberts
I sure hope the Brian Roberts trade isn't a done deal. I don't like it at all, way over values. Plus I'm comfortable with DeRosa and Mike Fontenot. It's fine to give up Cendeno but not Marshall. But if the trade is going down here's my lineup:
Soriano (selfishly only wants to hit lead-off, so I'll keep him happy)
Roberts
Lee
Ramirez (too slow to hit 3rd, and want to stay out of double plays)
Fukudome (to protect ARam?)
Soto
Theriot
Pie
Zambrano :o)
ESPN 1000's Bruce Levine
ESPN 1000's Bruce Levine says that the Orioles are not going to trade Roberts, according to MLB Trade Rumors. (Link via Cubs f/x via Baseball Musings.)