THREE REASONS WHY THE CUBS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY BETTER THIS YEAR

February 19, 2008 by willibest

As a die-hard, slightly biased, and at times bordering a naive cub fan, I have asked myself “why would my hopes for this club really be more than a pipe dream”? Family and friends have teased me for many years about my eternal optimism for “the cub’s chances” every year. Is this year any different? I believe there are three reasons why they are in fact a club destined to go deep into the playoffs and possibly the Big Game!

1) Pitching Depth. Many Cubs fans still long for the Wood, Prior, Zambrano type rotation that dominates batters. Recently, however, good club managers have demonstrated that you can go far with a pitching staff that is above average and a dominant bullpen. With better hitting this year, Zambrano will finally get his 20-plus-win year. If he stays healthy, I could see 23 to 24 wins for him. Lilly and Hill will get 15 to 17 wins a piece. This big question is who are the other two starters. I think Dempster has worked his tail off in the off-season and he is looking good. In Florida in 2001 and 2002, he won 14 and 15 games respectively. I think this is the type of starter Dempster can be if he pitches to his potential. The last spot will go to either Jason Marquis, Jon Lieber or Sean Marshall. Neither of those names strikes fear into the hearts of Major League batters. However, any of the three of them are capable of a 14 to 17-win season if all of the planets align themselves perfectly. I believe Marquis will be traded with Marshall soon and Lieber will get a second shot.

So where is the depth? The bullpen! Often it is not how good the starter does, but how well the set-up guys get through the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. I really don’t care who closes. It will most likely be Howry. The point is a Healthy Wood, along side Marmol, Eyre, Wuertz, Hart, and Gallagher, is an enviable bullpen for any club. I believe as many as 30 winning games this year will be more to the credit of bullpen relief than to the starting staff.

2) Improved hitting. I am one fan who is not jumping on the Fukudome bandwagon. He appears to be the real deal. But he has yet to play in a meaningful Major League game. If he bats anywhere near his Japanese averages, he will only add to the powerful staff the cubs already have. Both D-Lee and Ramirez had sub-par injury plagued years last season. If healthy, they will resume tearing up the field this year. The same is also true for Soriano. He was getting acclimated to the team last year, and he was often injured. If he is healthy, he will resume his 2006 form.

Ryan Theriot slowed down the final couple of months last year. But was anyone paying attention? He never stopped crushing the ball! It seamed every player had baseball magnates in their gloves when Theriot came to the plate. He seemed to just place the ball right into their gloves. I think he will resume crushing the ball this year, but he will hit a lot more gaps. Look for a little more power hitting from him this year as well. I also believe that Pie is ready to become “prime time” this year. It finally sunk into his head that he is more valuable as a “Lofton type” slap ball hitter than a power hitter. Sure he does have the strength to clobber the ball. But pitchers know he is to deliberate at the plate when he is trying to kill the ball. With his natural speed, he can dink and dunk himself to first. Now the real deal is Geovany Soto. No folks, last year was no fluke. This guy can hit! He can hit for average, and he can hit for power.

It would be great to get a Brian Roberts or another true leadoff player. But this club will hit the ball this year, with or without that kind of addition.

3) Fantastic Defense. I think the big reason I like the addition of Fukudome is not his batting, but his defense. He will finally stop the Jacque Jones type flubs and flounders in Right Field. We will finally have legitimate defense in that corner. If Pie sticks in Center, we will not need any other fielders. I truly believe he could cover the entire three positions. Well, not really. But he is very fast, and he has a GUN for an arm. Speaking of Guns, Soriano had quite a few bazooka throws to home and second as well. Geovany Soto may finally be the young catcher we have needed. One who can hit well, but can also gun down runners at second and pick off runners at first. Our defense this year will be first class!

I know I may be showing my Naiveté again. But something tells me I may be right this year. This is a good club, and maybe on the 100th anniversary of our last World Series win, we just might make history!

Permalink