Baseball will baffle me until the day I die, and maybe a little longer afterwards. What's been making me pull my hair lately? Well, since you asked...

• After sweeping the Cubs, the Yankees lost to the Devil Rays at home. The team that is 6-28 on the road can beat the Yankees at least once in a series, so why can't the Cubs eke one out? Thankfully, I can keep my sanity thanks to a Cub win last night, in which the gap in runs scored and allowed was only one. Weird to say after this last week, I know.

• The White Sox are an amazing 20-8 in one-run games. This has contributed mightily to their excellent record and has them outperforming the number of wins expected (i.e. considering their runs scored and runs allowed, see the link for more details) of them. Their actual record is 47-21 and their expected wins record is 41-27. A sizeable difference, but 41-27 would still have them in good shape. How does a team perform so well in tight games consistently? Even though one could say the Sox have been getting lucky, they're undeniably playing great baseball, and that's what baffles me here: they're good and lucky at the same time.
• The Nationals are just lucky. This first-place teams is also doing well in one-run games, putting up a 17-7 record in that situation. Unlike the Sox, this bit of luck is making all the difference in the world for this team. Consider: although Washington's record is currently 41-29, their expected wins record is a shocking 34-35. Somehow, the Nationals have a great record despite being outscored 288-290 thus far. To get an idea of how lucky they've been, look at the bottom of their division at the Mets, who are currently 33-36. Their expected wins record is the exact same as the Nats at 34-35.
• The Cardinals are darn good. I'm mostly surpised that this ship has been running as smoothly as it has so far. I never figured they'd come close to their 105-57 record in 2004, but winning 100+ seems entirely reasonable. I mean hell, with this NL Central, why not? They've been letting Scott Rolen heal slowly and will likely have the same luxury with Jim Edmonds and all the pieces will be ready to go in August and September to gain momentum for the playoffs.

That's only the tip of the iceberg, but then again, that's just what's eating at me today. Sometimes I like it when stuff just doesn't make sense, but sometimes I hope for just a little order and sense to shine through. In the meantime, though, let's hope I'm baffled again tonight when Jerome Williams takes the mound and pitches the game of his life. It'd surprise me, but if there's one thing I do know about baseball, it's to expect just about anything.