Not long for the uniform

This is a fun time of the baseball season. Enough games have been played for performance trends to matter, and of course the trade season begins to heat up in earnest. With that in mind, and with the Cubs in the thick of the Wild Card race, it's a pretty good bet that the roster of this team will change pretty significantly in the coming weeks. Without speculating on who the Cubs will add, I'd like to identify those players whose days with the Cubs may be numbered.

First up is Joe Borowski. Joe's pitched pretty bad since returning from the DL, although not as bad as one may think by looking at his 7.20 ERA. He's struck out 9 in 10 innings this year, while only walking one. Not too shabby. And he's only given up 12 hits, which is not great, but not overly disastrous, especially given the low walk total. No, the problem with Joe lies with one stat, and one stat only: his 5 homeruns allowed, one every other inning.

I think that Joe will stabilize over time and be a moderately effective reliever. A bad ten innings just isn't enough to pronounce a guy as "finished". Nonetheless, it's hard to imagine the team having much patience with him, and it seems likely to me that he's likely to be the odd man out when Prior and Wood return.

Next up, thankfully, is Enrique Wilson. Wilson was signed as a stopgap, basically a backup shortstop. He's been horrible, and while he's only had 21 at-bats, his nearly 1400 AB before joining the Cubs were also horrible. Lucky for us, he's not getting a whole lot of playing time, only 19 PA this month. That's still too many, but it's fairly moderate given that Dusty Baker still manages the team, and got one start in New York just because he used to play there.

I figure that since Wilson is, after all, not nearly as good as Jose Macias (the first time Macias has had that written about him, I bet!), he's gone soon. With Neifi Perez returning to his normal self, the Cubs really ought to be looking for help at SS, and Wilson won't be on the roster after that happens. At least I hope so, since heck, they'd be better off bringing back Rey Ordonez than sticking with Wilson. At least Ordonez can play a decent shortstop.

NOTE: The previous two sentences were not meant to imply a willingness to actually bring back Rey Ordonez.

I really, really like Sergio Mitre, but gosh, he looks like trade bait. I don't really even feel the need to write much more about him; it seems self-evident that, for better or worse, out of the entire 25-man roster, he's Most Likely To Be Traded. My only hope is that the Cubs don't undervalue him in a trade; he's not a great prospect, but he's got "Future Solid #3 Starter" written all over him.

The last on my list is Corey Patterson. Corey's suffering from what I've taken to calling "LaTroy Hawkins Disease", in which the afflicted seems to be getting worse with every passing game (as I write this, he's 0-4 with 4 K from the leadoff spot today against Ben Sheets).

To be honest, I'm of two different minds about Corey. On one hand, he's still, after all this time, only 25. That seems very early to give up on someone, especially someone with the raw talent he has. But on the other hand, it's hard to believe in someone, even a 25-year-old, who's getting worse with every passing year. So far this season, he's playing at pretty much the same level as we saw in 2002. Do I think he can turn it around? Sure, it's definitely possible. Do I think he will? Hmmm ....

The Cubs are in a position comparable to the Pirates with Aramis Ramirez in 2003, fed up with the lack of progress of an obviously talented and still young player. Like the Pirates, the Cubs can look to the guy's one good year, even if Corey's 2003 was ended prematurely by injury, and fret over the regression. The big difference, of course, is that Ramirez had gaudy minor league numbers to point to his potential; Corey has only 2003.

Maybe his sudden willingness to bat leadoff will put him back in Dusty's good graces, but if he doesn't show some results, he may be headed out of town by the trade deadline. It's worth noting that his skills don't seem to mesh with Dusty's idea of a leadoff hitter; he's a good base stealer who nonetheless doesn't steal a lot of bases, and he's a downright hideous bunter. I think the team will grow impatient with him in this role, and their disappointment may be even greater since they've wanted him in it for so long.

So, there you have it. Of course, there are bound to be surprises between now and July 31, but I'll be pretty surprised if any of these four are still on the roster August 1.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

FWIW, the team has both Ronni

FWIW, the team has both Ronnie Cedeno & Dave Kelton at Iowa both of whom could be called up to handle SS & CF respectively in place of Wilson/Perez & Patterson. Ditto for Jermaine Van Buren in place of Borowski. Yet, the much ballyhooed GM Hendry has failed to do any such thing. As for Wilson, have you not noticed the number of well toasted vets that Hendry has signed up for this club during the years that he's been GM?

More and more it looks like mgmt has already decided to mail this season in and further scapegoat Sosa for the debacle. If you want to see what a really good GM does when confronted with a laggard team, just look to what happened on the south side this last offeason and then contrast it with Hendry's do nothingness.

Ken Williams

a really good GM

That's the first time Ken Williams has been accused of that.

The White Sox are not as good as their record. And if you consider their actual performance and their strength of schedule, as Baseball Prospectus's Adjusted Standings does, the White Sox have only been a couple of games better than the Cubs.

A lot of folks who don't swil

A lot of folks who don't swill the Cubbie Blue Kool-Aid have called Williams a good GM. Perhaps you need to read more about baseball. As for Baseball Prospectus, that's nothing but a troll type website that makes all sorts of specious sabermetric analysis to start stupid arguments and generate publicity for themselves. The Sox smashed the Cubs in the last 3 game set at Wrigley and only Prior's self-sacrificing 126 pitch game prevented a sweep. As of now, all signs point towards a repeat at U.S. Cellular Field this weekend.

BP

As for Baseball Prospectus, that's nothing but a troll type website that makes all sorts of specious sabermetric analysis to start stupid arguments and generate publicity for themselves.

I think in some parts of the country, those are fightin' words. :)

But, seriously, I disagree. I hardly think that BP is the be-all and end-all of baseball discussion - I doubt even the BP authors think that - but they're an invaluable resource. At the very least, they're willing to challenge their own assumptions, which is more than I can say for most "mainstream" baseball analysts I can think of.

A lot of folks who don't swill the Cubbie Blue Kool-Aid have called Williams a good GM.

We shall see. He's not done much to distinguish himself before this year and it takes more than one good half to be a good GM. Even Ed Lynch took a team to the playoffs.

Kelton in CF?

David Kelton is hitting .291/.335/.448 for Iowa right now. Decent, but if you put him in the majors, it's likely that his numbers wouldn't be much different than what Patterson is putting up right now (.245/.280/.396). Plus, Patterson is the much better defensive centerfielder (given Kelton is not even a centerfielder). I'm of the mind that, as frustrating as Patterson can be, there are not enough better options, and that Patterson should continue to play with the hope that he can get back to his 2003 level. At least until Felix Pie is ready (which could be next year, but more likely 2007).

Patterson's minor league seasons

The big difference, of course, is that Ramirez had gaudy minor league numbers to point to his potential; Corey has only 2003.

Yes, Ramirez had some big minor league numbers, but Patterson did have some good minor league seasons in 1999 (950 OPS) and 2000 (829 OPS).

true enough

That was a careless statement by me.

Borowski

A bad ten innings just isn't enough to pronounce a guy as "finished".

But can we count Borowski's 22 innings last year, too?

Borowski has never been effective without a 91-92 mph fastball. He doesn't have it now, and hasn't had it since 2003.

JoeBo

I suppose only Joe and the trainers know for sure, but it seemed clear to me that his performance last year was affected by injury. His uncharacteristically high walk rate (15 in 21.1 IP) indicates that he was a different pitcher last year than he is this year.

As for the dip in velocity, he's still managing to strike batters out at a healthy rate, so I don't know how much of a factor it is. Again, his rate stats are fine except for that pesky HR rate, and it's hard to imagine him giving up 4.5 HR/9 for long, velocity be darned.

Although, it bears repeating that it is only 10 innings. Anything can happen.

I hope you're right.

I hope you're right.

I don't think it will matter;

I don't think it will matter; will he even be on the team after this weekend?