The 87 Games That Was

Having reached the All-Star break, it's time for a nice, long, detailed review of the Cubs' underwhelming season so far. Hopefully, someone will write that review, but in the meantime, I've put together a shorter, less detailed, not-as-nice look back.

The Cubs have pulled into the midseason dock with a 43-44 record, and as much as I'd like to look for a silver lining, it looks for all the world like they're really, truly a 43-44 team. Actually, as fortune would have it, they've scored exactly as many runs (394) as they've allowed, so it's fair to say that they look like a .500 team, instead of a .494 team. But they've played an odd number of games, and them's the breaks.

With that in mind, let's take a look at what's gone well for the Cubs so far.

Exhibit A - Derrek Lee
Lee has, of course, been having a monstrous season, on par with anything Sammy Sosa ever did, and approaching Bondsian heights. He's a genuine (if unlikely) Triple Crown threat, hitting .378/.452/.733 so far, he's tied for the Major League lead in homers with 27, and just for good measure, he's tied for third in the majors in doubles. His slugging percentage alone is higher than the OPS of 30% of all big-league regulars. He's far and away the MVP of the team and the league, and ... well, he's far and away the MVP of the team and the league. There's not much more to say.

Exhibit B - Aramis Ramirez
The Cubs' other All-Star, Ramirez has continued his fine hitting, after a breakout season last year. About the worst thing that can be said is that his batting average has dipped a bit, but it happens. Even that is partially mitigated by the astonishing fact that he hasn't hit into a single double play this year. Defensively, he's making a few more errors last year, but I think his low error total from last year obscures the plain truth that he's not a tremendously good defensive third baseman. So I don't think much has changed in that respect. All in all, while we wait to see what becomes of a) Scott Rolen's decline this year, and b) Morgan Ensberg's ascension, Ramirez might have become the best third basemen in the NL.

Exhibit C - Carlos Zambrano
Carlos has struggled at times, and even when he's not allowing runs he's walking too many people for me to be comfortable. Nonetheless, with Wood and Prior on the DL, and Maddux inconsistent, Zambrano's been the best and most reliable pitcher on the staff. I'll be watching his second half with great curiosity, because I think the status quo is untenable; either he gets his stuff under better control and dominates, or he combusts and becomes a disaster. I think the former's more likely, but who can say?

Exhibit D - Todd Walker
It's easy to overlook Walker, because his time on the DL has kept his overall numbers down. All the same, his .304/.360/.468 line has been greatly helpful to a team that has only 2 other hitters that are appreciably above average at their position. And while he's surely not a great defensive second baseman, I don't think his defense is as bad as it's made out to be.

Exhibit E - Ryan Dempster
I know, I know. I was skeptical, too. But since moving to the bullpen - or more accurately, since his second appearance out of the bullpen - Dempster has been very good. He's cut his walk rate substantially and been very difficult to hit, while becoming the only consistently good member of the Cubs' bullpen (aside from glorified LOOGY Will Ohman). Perhaps Dempster, after a mediocre career to date, has finally found his role.

Sadly, those are about the only real positives. After some thought, it doesn't seem necessary to go over the negatives, since we all know who they are, and it's not as much fun as acknowledging the good. Suffice to say, I'd get further than Exhibit E.

So where do the Cubs go from here? The bottom line is, the division title is all but out of reach, and they're 6 games behind in the wild card race. Even worse, they're looking up at 5 teams for that wild card birth. I hate to say it, but it's hard to imagine a playoff run being very likely. Yes, I know that they've had problems with injuries, and yes, I know the rotation looks very different with a healthy Wood and Prior than it did throughout most of the first half. But it's easy to forget that Rusch (and to a lesser extent, Mitre) pitched pretty decent while those two were on the DL; they're not going to make the difference by themselves.

I think the demotions of Patterson and Dubois were a sign that the front office is thinking along the same lines. There are no illusions that things are fine, we just need to stay the course, and things will work out. Instead, Hendry has seemingly realized that something needed to change. I think that's a laudable acknowledgment, but it can have its bad side, too.

I think the worst thing the Cubs could do right now is trade for an overpriced, mediocre veteran. Yes, I'm thinking specifically of Preston Wilson, but any overpriced, mediocre veteran will do. I hate the thought of giving up actual value for mediocrity at any time, but especially when the Cubs should be figuring out if they can fill their holes internally.

Example: is there any reason for Neifi Perez to be playing everyday? Perez has been terrible since a hot start, and history tells us that unless he's traded to Colorado, he's more likely to get worse than better. Even if Ronny Cedeno proves unable to handle the job, what's the harm in playing a bad player over an equally bad player? Even under the worse case scenario, it wouldn't make the Cubs any worse, but there's a good chance it will make them better.

Likewise, we've got Matt Murton up, play him! Not once a week, or against lefties, but everyday. Unhappy with Mike Remlinger? Give his innings to Reynel Pinto. Bring Mike Fontenot back up and wish Jose Macias good luck. There are any number of ways the Cubs could look to the future without disrupting the present too harshly.

So I guess that sums up the Cubs' mission from here on out. It's too early to throw in the towel, but at the same time, it would be silly to give anything of value up for a half-season rental. Stick with internal solutions for current holes, or if a move is made, get someone who will help out beyond this year. It's a delicate act, one that will have ramifications not just for this season, but seasons to come.

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Good job.

Good job.

Thanks

Thanks, Charles.

Other stuff

I'm with you on bringing up the "yutes" to play, but unless you get rid of their sorry ol' tired hind-ends, Perez and Macias will be used by the toothpicked-one. He loves his vets. I had hoped with Sosa and Alou (two crusty vets) gone, that the Cubs would go with more youth.

Supposedly they got their chance in spring training, but it has taken a half season for Dusty to start using them, besides the approximately two weeks that Dubois had to shine or sit.

I'm glad to see ARam continue his power-hitting ways, but I don't like his continued "ouchiness". If some of the Bears (like Urlacher) have better success this season with avoiding groin/hamstring pulls, maybe they can give ARam some tips.

I wonder how much of Zambrano's problems could be a "sophomore slump"?

Re: Other stuff

I'm with you on bringing up the "yutes" to play, but unless you get rid of their sorry ol' tired hind-ends, Perez and Macias will be used by the toothpicked-one.

Well, let's get rid of Perez and Macias then!

It's funny, in a rational world I wouldn't mind having Neifi on the roster, strictly as a defensive sub and pinch-runner. But it would have to be a world in which those were the ONLY times he was used, and it would require carrying only 11 pitchers, too.

I wonder how much of Zambrano's problems could be a "sophomore slump"?

Well ... it is his third full season in the rotation already. A "junior slump" maybe?

Slump

I did have sophomore in quotes, but yeah, whether it's that or junior, he has been struggling a bit. I suppose when the other two horses (Prior-Woods) went down, he took it upon himself to be "da Man" and overpitched (if something like that is possible). That and all the e-mail/blogging could have done a number on his pitching arm. That keyboard can be dangerous!