WARP and the big picture
The top 10 Cubs in WARP ("the number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done"), from Baseball Prospectus:
1. Derrek Lee, 10.6
2. Carlos Zambrano, 5.9
3. Aramis Ramirez, 5.1
4. Jeromy Burnitz, 4.1
5. Neifi Perez, 4.0
6t. Michael Barrett, 3.5
6t. Mark Prior, 3.5
8. Greg Maddux, 3.4
9. Todd Walker, 3.3
10. Ryan Dempster, 2.7
WARP to me is an interesting idea for a stat, because it attempts to measure how many wins a player is actually worth. Derrek Lee, for example, leads all of baseball with a 10.6 WARP, meaning he's worth more than 10 wins over a replacement level player. By way of comparison, Lee has a chance to equal, at least in WARP terms, all but the most spectacular of Barry Bonds's seasons (i.e., 2001, 2003, and 2004), and he's already surpassed any season Sammy Sosa put up save for his monstrous 2001.
What makes WARP especially interesting is that it takes both offense and defense into effect, one of the few devised stats to do so. One reason that Lee rates so highly over Albert Pujols (8.4 WARP), despite similar offensive numbers, is that Lee is judged to be a very good first baseman, while Pujols is slightly below average.
Matter of fact, looking more closely we can start to see how defense is killing the Cubs. Aramis Ramirez and Michael Barrett are two excellent examples. Both rate very highly for the offense they provide at their position, but both are judged to be horrible defenders (which I think we all knew anyway). Thus, despite similar raw offensive numbers, Ramirez lags way behind the defensively superior Morgan Ensberg (8.7 WARP), and is roughly equal with Eric Chavez (4.9 WARP), even though Chavez's offensive numbers just don't compare.
Barrett suffers just as much from his atrocious defense. Despite being rated the fourth best offensive catcher in baseball by VORP, Barrett comes out behind such lesser offensive catchers as Jason LaRue (3.8 WARP), Brian Schneider (4.7 WARP), and Ivan Rodriguez (4.3 WARP).
Perhaps the biggest surprise on this list to me is that Neifi Perez actually comes out looking pretty good. Then again, there's never been any real debate that Neifi is a fine defensive shortstop. That's made up for his shortcomings with the bat; according to WARP, he's been more valuable than clearly superior offensive shortstops as Carlos Guillen (3.5 WARP), Russ Adams (2.5 WARP), and Edgar Renteria (2.2 WARP), among others. It's been a career year for Neifi, and he's still not among the more valuable shortstops in the game, but there are many reasons the Cubs have disappointed this year; Neifi is not among them.
I know I've been guilty in the past in overlooking defense in favor of offense, but looking at these numbers I wonder if I haven't overlooked defense a bit too much. That's not to say that the WARP system is perfect, but it's a good way to look beyond the raw stats and get a good look at the bigger picture.
- Brian C's blog
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Barrett and Perez
Do what I do: ignore Barrett's defense (and handling of the pitchers -- if such a thing matters; I think it does; it's just too hard to demonstrate) and Perez's defense. That way, I can love Barrett's game because of his bat and deride Baker for playing Perez because of his bat. Why I prefer this partial-blindness, I don't know.
Really, Perez's out-making ability is amazing. One wonders whether he's been involved in more outs -- offensively and defensively -- on a per game basis than almost every other man who has played the game.
I wonder if I haven't overlooked defense a bit too much
Me too.
re: Barrett and Perez
Do what I do: ignore Barrett's defense (and handling of the pitchers -- if such a thing matters; I think it does; it's just too hard to demonstrate) and Perez's defense. That way, I can love Barrett's game because of his bat and deride Baker for playing Perez because of his bat.
As far as Barrett goes, that's probably a good idea. Barrett is good enough offensively that he's still an above average all-around catcher, and is obviously a better day-to-day option than Henry Blanco (whose defense, it should be noted, is very good). I'm just pointing out that his defense is keeping him from being as valuable as his offense would indicate.
And it should be said that Neifi isn't nearly as valuable as a healthy Nomar would figure to be. I'm inclined to give Neifi a lot of credit for the season he's had, but I'm not going to lose sight of the fact that that good season is in the context of being a backup SS.