Not Signing Kolb Was Good
I don't get a lot of predictions right (though I did finish third in this!), so it's worth pointing out when I do get something.
With the Cubs looking for a closer before last season, GM Jim Hendry expressed an interest in Brewers closer Dan Kolb. Kolb was coming off two excellent years for the Brewers, though in just 41.1 and 57.1 innings, respectively. Kolb had a 1.96 ERA and 21 saves in 2003 followed by a 2.98 ERA and 39 saves in 2004. And the Brewers were ready to deal.
The Atlanta Braves bit. They traded their top minor league starting pitching prospect Jose Capellan for Kolb. I praised Hendry for his restraint. Kolb went on to post a 5.93 ERA for the Braves in 2005, as his walk rate returned to its pre-2004 level and he started giving up line drives all over the park. Leo Mazzone's powers used for evil, no doubt. In a strange twist, the Braves ended the season with Kyle Farnsworth -- once the Cubs' future closer and also the player discussed as likely bait for Kolb -- as their closer.
Of course, in the same post that I praised Hendry for not giving in to Milwaukee's demands for Kolb, I asserted that LaTroy Hawkins was going to be a top-notch closer in 2005. Woops. As I said at the beginning of this post about my predictions . . .
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Kolb
I was happy, too, although I never could figure out if Hendry actually exercised any restraint or if Atlanta just outmanuevered him.
As an aside, it looks like the Brewers made Cappellan a reliever in 2005. He actually pitched very well for the Brewers in 17 appearances this season, although he struggled with his control somewhat in Nashville before being called up (though still only had a 3.87 ERA). He looks to be a big part of Milwaukee's bullpen this season.
It's weird to see someone so clearly get the better of the Braves in a trade involving pitchers. That doesn't happen too often, but Doug Melvin is one of the game's best GMs, so there you go.