Cubs to trade Prior for Tejada?
Submitted by nextseason on Thu, 2005-12-22 12:12.
FoxSports.com reports that the Cubs are in talks with the Orioles for a deal that would send Prior to Baltimore and Tejada to Chicago but "talks are stalled, a source says, over the Cubs' insistence that the Orioles give up left-hander Erik Bedard along with Tejada if they want Prior – and the Cubs' refusal to include top outfield prospect Felix Pie or a top pitching prospect in return."
Both teams are also in discussions with Boston for a three-way deal that would send Manny Ramirez to the Orioles and Tejada to Chicago.
I would be okay with a Prior for Tejada trade. Getting Tejada and moving Cedeno over to 2B would be ideal and it makes the Jacque Jones acquisition a lot more palatable.
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Tejada
I'd probably go for that, too, but it's still solving one problem by creating another. Adding Tejada would be an enormous boost to the Cubs' offense, but all of the sudden the rotation is a lot weaker, and there aren't any obvious candidates to replace Prior.
Bedard would help, though.
Kevin Millwood is available
Kevin Millwood hasn't signed yet. He's not Prior, but he's good, and every few years, very good.
Tejada and Bedard for Prior and Pie is probably a good deal. But it's hard to be detached about this, given the role Prior played in 2003 and the role we all expect him to play when and if the Cubs ever return to that position.
Millwood
I'm not sure they could get Millwood for a contract that makes any kind of sense. He's looking at, what, five or six years I would think, and there's no way I'd do that.
BP's stats are not very kind to Millwood, either. NRAs around league-average or higher, except for his weird but very pronounced tendency to pitch at a much higher level exactly one year out of every three.
Tejada and Bedard for Prior and Pie is probably a good deal.
Depends. Prior is probably better than Bedard, right now and going forward. If Pie becomes the power hitting center fielder who plays good defense that we've looked forward to the past few years, that deal looks pretty bad for the Cubs.
Pie
Certainly much depends on how good Pie turns out to be. I'd rather give up a pitching prospect than Pie. But even if Pie turns out to be a good player (as opposed to a great player), it's possible that Pie's ultimate value over Bedard's ultimate value won't be enough to make up for Tejada's value over Prior's. As good as Prior is, Tejada is the surer bet to bring more wins over the next few years, even despite their age difference.
who knows
It's a really tough call to make. If I were a GM, it would be the kind of deal on which I felt I was staking my job. Players with Pie's skill set are very hard to find on the market, and his departure opens a giant hole that Pierre simply will not be able to fill.
As good as Prior is, Tejada is the surer bet to bring more wins over the next few years, even despite their age difference.
That's another huge variable that I'm not sure I'm comfortable with. Prior put up a WARP3 of 9.3 in 2003. Tejeda's been better than that only twice; 11.8 in 2004 and 9.5 in 2005. So basically, he's only been significantly better once.
I have no idea what to expect from Prior. Is it fair to wonder if he has durability issues? His injuries the past couple years have seemed pretty fluky, so I don't know. Is it reasonable to expect him to match his 2003 performance on a consistent basis over the next few years? Again, I don't know, but he'll only be 25 next year, so it's hard to bet against. If he improves on his 2003, even a little bit, he probably will be more valuable than Tejada. If we are expecting him to repeat his 2004-2005 seasons, then you're right. But I don't have any idea what to expect.
Complicating matters even further is the fact that we don't really know how close the Cubs are to contending in 2006. Is it reasonable to believe that acquiring Tejada will put them over the top? They've got what looks to be a mediocre outfield, a questionable rotation even before Prior's departure, and a first baseman coming off of a superstar year that we have no idea if he can repeat. The bench is sure to be a sorry sight in practice even if it looks reasonable on paper. In fact, it's really hard to see how they've made themselves much better than they were last year; they may even be worse. How close does adding Tejada get them? From 79 wins to what, 85, 86? Maybe less if Lee is unable to maintain his 2005 level? That might be enough to get them within shouting distance of the playoffs if everything works out, but is that enough to justify such a risky deal?
When I started this post, I expected I was working towards justifying doing the deal. But there are so many scenarios that could play out, and it's hard to say which ones are more likely than the others. Tejada and Bedard seem pretty easy to peg, but Pie and Prior ... it's not hard to see the possibility that the Cubs would be giving away two superstars for considerably less in return. It's hard to make a deal premised on the assumption that the high-ceiling players you're giving up will perform below expectations, but I think that's what's required to pull the trigger on this. And if the deal turns out badly it leaves the organization in a really, really bad position.
Tejada v. Prior
Prior's unpredictability is the reason I called Tejada the surer bet.
Ultimately, though, I think you only make a swap of superstars if the superstar has a troubled history in the particular town he's in. That's not the case with Prior. Prior, next to Lee, is the most popular player on the team. While I believe that Tejada/Bedard will end up being more valuable over the next several seasons than Prior/Pie, it's not a risk I want Hendry to take, for a number of reasons, including loyalty.
How do you Cubs fans rate Zambrano compared to Prior?
For me as an Oriole fan, durability is a major concern. Prior was outstanding in 03. The rest of his career is not as outstanding. I concede he is one of the best young pitchers in MLB. I personally like Zambrano better. For me Tejada is the most durable player in MLB... I personally think Tejada and Rodrigo Lopez for Zmbrano and Pie would be reasonable. Pie is a prospect with top potential, whether he reaches that potential is a risk the O's would have to assume... Thoughts?
Prior v. Zambrano
That's a good and difficult question. Over the last three seasons, Zambrano has been 72 runs above average, according to Baseball Prospectus. Prior has been 54. The difference is largely due to Zambrano's better endurance. Zambrano has never matched Prior's 2003 season, but the difference between Zambrano in either 2003, 2004, or 2005, and Prior in 2003, isn't huge.
Going forward, I like Prior better, because of his better control (while still striking out more batters than Zambrano). Prior had almost a 5-1 K/BB ratio in 2003. That's incredible, and Zambrano has never come close to that (of course, neither has Prior). But it all comes back to health. Prior was good in 2004-05, but not great, and his not being able to repeat his 2003 season (even on a rate basis, as opposed to a cumulative basis), has to be attributable to his arm problems. Zambrano, on the other hand, has proven quite durable.
Tejada leaving
If I am the Os GM, no way do I give up Tejada and Bedard for Prior and Pie. I might give up Tejada alone for Prior and Pie, but even then, you are talking about one of the five best players in the American League at one of the most difficult positions to fill.
Tejada has been the centerpiece acquisition for the Orioles and to give him up for a guy whose arm is suspect and a prospect wannabe seems ludicrous- particularly then if you throw in a guy-Bedard- who is going to likely have a breakout year and was the best pitcher in the AL for his first seven starts last year until he had a fluke injury.
The Orioles are realizing that if they send Tejada away for even equal value, that there will be a tremendous dropoff at Camden Yards as the fans are absolutely fed up with Peter Angelos and current management. Tejada being dealt will basically say to the rest of baseball- if you are a superstar, don't come to Baltimore, or if you become a star in Baltimore- i.e. Mike Mussina, B.J. Ryan- then leave as soon as you can.
Can't lose Prior
If the orioles want zambrano more than Prior, that sounds like a better deal anyhow. Prior has to much potential that has already been seen, and with the past 2 seasons being a wash, his arm has considerably less mileage on it. Zambrano is a work horse, but how long can he stay that way? He is also way to emotional, and come prior getting through his rookie injuries, he is going to have a very long good career ahead of him. This would be like trading maddux all over again to watch him go on to the braves and be a superstar. Don't think I can watch that happen again. The cubs really havent made any good moves yet and losing Prior would just be continuing their streak.
Starting Pitching=WEAK!
b>Are the Cubs seriously going into 2006 with this array of question marks?
Zambrano-He's Great!
Prior-Injury Prone
Maddux-Too Old?
Glendon Roush-Inconsistent
Jerome Williams-Inconsistent
Kerry Wood- (Yeah right!)
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The Cubs should have been chasing at least 2 more starters this off season. Signing 2 middle relief men is always questionable because these guys are up and down every year. Most middle guys are just failed starters anyway!. Better to populate your team with established starters and let them fight it out, with the least effective going to middle relief or use them in a trade.