An open letter to all Cubs fans
I also posted this in the forums.
This is it?
Are the 2006 Chicago Cubs now in place? No other players to add, no other trades to make, nothing? Because, if it is, it’s not good enough.
Trading Corey Patterson, and adding Jacque Jones in right field, Juan Pierre in center, two middle relievers and John Mabry is not marked improvement over last year. In fact, speaking strictly in terms of player salaries, it’s a large step backward. The Jones signing finally completed filling in the $8.25 million that Nomar received (and can we now admit that trade was a bust?) and some of what Burnitz was paid. I may be only a fan, but I can tell you that the way to improve a 79 win team is not to spend less on player salaries.
And then there’s Sammy’s money. All $15 million dollars plus. Where did it go? Last year it went to Baltimore, because the fans were never going to take him back after he ran out on the team. I understand that. But that’s over now. Where does all that money go for next season? Apparently into the new bleacher seats, which will not help if winning a championship is on the to do list for the foreseeable future.
Misery loves company. And the Cubs’ misery was shared, for way too many years, by the White Sox and the Red Sox. Now, in the course of two seasons, that’s all changed. So why is there no urgency to address this? Jacque Jones, Juan Pierre and the others do not say “urgency” to me.
I’ll give you an example of what I mean by urgency. After the 2002 season, Jim Thome was a free agent. All those stellar years in Cleveland proved that he was a premier player. He’ll be a Hall of Famer some day. And even though he was commanding a high salary, the Tribune has the resources to write a big enough check to get him. I even remember talk of the “home town discount” he would give in order to play for the team he grew up rooting for.
The reason the Cubs didn’t want him is because they were convinced that Hee Seop Choi was good enough at first base. So Thome followed the money and signed with Philadelphia. They rolled the dice. That says urgency to me.
So what happened in 2003, Thome’s first season in Philadelphia? He hit 47 home runs and drove in 131 runs. Adding those numbers to the 2003 team means the Marlins do not clinch the pennant at Wrigley. Steve Bartman and all the other fans with tickets for Game 6 would have needed ticket refunds instead.
And what did Hee Seop Choi do that year? After that scary incident in the Yankees game, where he was taken off the field in an ambulance, he was never really a factor. He had just 43 at-bats after the All-Star break that year, and batted a dismal .140. The acquisition of Derrick Lee after the 2003 season was a clear admission that Choi wasn’t the answer the organization thought he would be.
Lee’s a very good player, maybe even a great player in the making, but the only reason he came to our attention in the first place was because of what the Marlins were able to accomplish that year. And they accomplished it, in large part, because the Cubs (meaning Jim Hendry) let Thome get away.
I have been hearing that Jim Hendry will get a contract extension, and then Dusty Baker will get his extension, and all will be good on the North Side. But not in my mind, it won’t. One division title, one playoff berth, and no pennants (which, thanks to the White Sox, is where the bar will be set for the foreseeable future) is not enough to show after three years of Hendry/Baker.
The Mets and Dodgers are adding players like they have the urgency. And both of them have already won championships during the Tribune’s era of futility (now at 23 seasons and counting). The Cubs, on the other hand, are content to upgrade the ballpark. That’s where their bread is buttered, after all.
Not buying tickets for any home games next year is all I can do to say “enough.” By continuing to flock to the park, Cubs fans are feeding the beast that is the Tribune’s lack of interest in winning. They will deny this, of course, but what has Jacque Jones ever won? Or what about Dusty Baker? He burned out the Cubs’ pitching staff when he came here in 2003, and hasn’t had a whiff of anything since. I would not be surprised if Joe Girardi wins a World Series as a manager before Dusty Baker does.
If something should happen next year and the Cubs start winning, I’ll become a bandwagon jumper for the first time. But this team won’t win the way it is now. And, upon minimal reflection, anyone who knows baseball can see that.
And ongratulations to Bruce Sutter!!!
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2006; & the Tribune Co.
I agree that the Cubs have not done a lot to improve on 2005. Health, as is usually the case, will play a big role. If the Cubs are healthier in 2006 than they were in 2005, that may be enough to compete with a hopefully weaker St. Louis and Houston.
I was certainly someone who was a big Choi supporter, and was fine with Hendry not pursuing Thome. Even in hindsight, it appears likely to turn out for the best long term. Hendry turned Choi into Lee, and Lee will be better than Thome over the next several seasons, as Thome is on the injury-plagued decline stage of his career. Of course, if Thome would have brought a World Series championship in 2003, I throw all that out the window.
I also don't buy the excuse that the Tribune Co. doesn't care about winning. It is true that the Tribune Co. doesn't care about winning per se. But that's because the Tribune Co. is a corporation and doesn't care about anything, ultimately, except maximizing shareholder value, which is true of all corporations (both small and large). That's their purpose (which is neither good nor bad; individual people are the ones who are good or bad).
But the Tribune Co. does provide a sufficient budget to win, and to win consistently, and to compete for a pennant. The Cubs have simply failed to take full advantage of that budget.
You're really telling me that 47 HRs and 131 RBIs...
would not have made the 2003 team better? I grant you we'll never know for sure, but look at what Thome did that year? And you're giving Hendry a pass because you think Lee will pay dividends in the future? To push a sub-.500 team to maybe 5 or 6 games over .500, at best? Your crystal ball works a lot better than mine does.
Don't be so sure that Thome won't flourish on the South side, either.
Re: Thome in 2003
Thome clearly would have made the Cubs better in 2003. I didn't say anything inconsistent with that.
Thome has been an excellent player, and he very may well have a few good years left in him.
Can we agree the Nomar trade didn't help Hendry's cause?
Because it seems that nobody is willing to acknowledge the trade worked to Boston's benefit a lot more than it did to ours.
Nomar
I think we can all agree that the Nomar trade didn't work out as well as hoped, but that's as far as I'd go. As far as I know, no one's ever said otherwise.
You can't, on one hand, say you want to see more "urgency", and then on the other criticize Hendry for making exactly the kind of deal that you want to see more of. Besides, we still have Matt Murton from that deal.
Re: Can we agree the Nomar trade didn't help Hendry's cause?
No. That trade was probably one of Hendry's best moments. To get as many teams involved as he did? To get a player of Nomar's caliber? No one knew he wouldn't play. The trade was worth the risk. And don't forget that trade also brought the Cubs their 2006 starting left fielder. If Brendan Harris turns out to be a stud, maybe we can gripe about it, but then the trade helps Washington, not the BoSox.
Now, I do agree with you on many points. I'm very disappointed in Hendry's off-season moves, and I'm not terribly optimistic about 2006. I don't really think Hendry has an excuse for losing out on Furcal. And don't say the Dodgers paid too much. The Cubs essentially had an exclusive negotiating window for a full month before the Dodgers were even interested. There's no reason he wasn't locked up then. He should have been given an offer he couldn't refuse before the Dodgers even made a bid. I can go on and on. I'm disappointed in a lot this off season. I was even excited about a trade for Kevin Mench rather than J. Jones. But am I going to deny myself baseball? No, of course not. There isn't another team I'd rather root for, so I'm not going to sit at home and stage some protest that only I know about. Besides, if the Cubs stink in 06, I'd rather go and boo them than root for someone else.
So does Hendry deserve an extension, then?
Nomar did not earn the $8mil+ he was paid last year. The decision to bring him here was solely Jim Hendry's and, as far as I can see, it was a major bust. We can also agree, I would think, that LaTroy Hawkins did not work out either. Sammy, well, that wasn't Hendry's fault. Hee Seop Choi? Absolutely that was bad. So was has Hendry done right?
Maybe Kenny Lofton, and maybe signing Lee and getting Ramirez. The jury is out on each of them, though. I hope they will pan out over time, but I'm not willing to say they earn Hendry more time.
Theo Epstein didn't need 4 years to accomplish what he did in Boston. Why is Hendry getting more time than he did? Someone help me out here.
And Kerry Wood is a $9.5 million dollar hope this year. Again, Hendry's decision. And not a good one, either.
Yeah but ...
Some of these I can blame Hendy for and some of these I can't. The Nomar trade was a good one. It didn't work out, but it was the right move. So was geting LaTroy. The Cubs bullpen was terrible (still is, possibly). So the Cubs went out and got the best reliever available that year. I can't fault Hendry for that. I would have been pissed if he didn't get LaTroy. I'm more mad at Hendry for his faith in Dusty than I am an the moves he's made. Another year of Neifei Perez starting and now with John Mabry as the new Jose Macias? Ugh. But I'm not sure Hendry should be faulted for all the moves you mentioned. If you find an attractive person and ask them out and the first date stinks, it's not your fault for asking that person out. It didn't work out. And what the heck was bad about Hee Sop? The Cubs had a hot prospect and gave him a shot. Everyt team wanted him. We got D. Lee for him, so that should tell you what Hee Sop's value once was.
2003 could have been much bigger than it was.
Choi on this team was a liability. Thome would have been a huge difference maker. But Hendry didn't go there. That's on him.
And LaTroy stunk. Stunk. Stunk. Bad move, Jim Hendry.
What about Kerry Wood? Lots of teams will pay pitchers less than Wood will get next year. And get more for it, too.
Re: Hawkins
And LaTroy stunk. Stunk. Stunk. Bad move, Jim Hendry.
It ended badly, but the signing was a good one when it happened. Hawkins was actually very, very good in 2004. And he wasn't terrible in 2005. Except when pitching in the 9th inning with a one run lead. I don't see how you fault Hendry for Borowski getting injured and then Hawkins pitching great at all times except the 9th inning with a one run lead.
He blew 3 games--all at home--in the first month of 2005.
The season ended before it had a chance to start.
And let's not talk about the pitch he grooved to Victor Diaz in New York on a Saturday afternoon in late September of 2004. That was the sort of knockout blow that Kirk Gibson delivered to the Oakland A's in the 1988 WS. The Cubs could have come back strong the next day in New York, gone home, and taken care of their business and sewn up the wild card spot. But the loss was so crushing that they couldn't recover. Mike Tyson never recovered from Buster Douglas in Tokyo. And The 2004 Cubs (and 2005) never recovered from LaTroy and Victor Diaz.
Even before that moment, LaTroy was well short of automatic when it came to closing games. And what did everyone say? Poor LaTroy, he really wasn't supposed to close games anyway! Why was he clsing games? Because Hendry assumed Joe Borowski would carry over 2003 into 2004. Bad move, Jim Hendry!
Victor Diaz?
But the loss was so crushing that they couldn't recover. Mike Tyson never recovered from Buster Douglas in Tokyo. And The 2004 Cubs (and 2005) never recovered from LaTroy and Victor Diaz.
There are just too many other factors to ascribe what happened in 2004 and 2005 to one pitch.
Because Hendry assumed Joe Borowski would carry over 2003 into 2004. Bad move, Jim Hendry!
Actually, Hendry was assuming Borowski would carry over 2002 and 2003 into 2004. Borowski had been very good both seasons.
In any event, if you can point me to something you wrote before the 2004 season saying that Borowski would have arm troubles and that Hawkins would not be an adequate backup solution, I'll consider your criticism to carry some weight.
Why doesn't my criticism of Borowski carry weight now?
He was expected to be the closer in 2004 that he had been in 2003. I don't know what the 2002 stats were, but I doubt they compared with 2003's. Anyway, he had never had a 2003-like season before, and there was no real reason to expect he could repeat it the next season. But Hendry did anyway.
It's like when you bet black on the roulette wheel. When black comes up, you're a genius. When Red comes up, you're an idiot. And whatever Hendry bet on in 2004 didn't come up.
Borowski in 2002
Borowski had a similar ERA in 2002 (2.73) as 2003 (2.63) and threw 27 more innings in 2002. He was more valuable in 2002.
Criticism of Hendry
Why doesn't my criticism of Borowski carry weight now?
I'm saying your criticism of Hendry doesn't carry weight now. You write as if everyone in the world except Hendry knew Borowski would get injured in 2004. If you can point me to something you said before the 2004 season, arguing that Hendry shouldn't rely on Borowski and that Hawkins wasn't a good backup option, your criticism will look less like the mere hindsight criticism you appear to be offering now.
The season ended before it ha
The season ended before it had a chance to start.
The whole argument in this comment doesn't counter my point that the Hawkins signing was a good one when it happened.
The proof is in the results. And the results were bad.
Drafting Sam Bowie ahead of Michael Jordan was a brilliant move, until the next season started. I'm mixing my sports, but the idea that signing someone who doesn't work out can still be called a good signing when it happens seems to suggest that the results really don't mean everything. And I'm saying that's the only way we can judge how a signing or a trade works out. Once the player has a chance to go out and reward (or not reward) the faith that was put in them by the team that acquired them.
Trades and results
And I'm saying that's the only way we can judge how a signing or a trade works out.
Of course it is. But judging how a trade works out is not the only judgment to be made. The other judgment is, given our knowledge at the time of the trade, was it a good trade to make? No one knew Jordan would be so much better than Bowie.
results
the idea that signing someone who doesn't work out can still be called a good signing when it happens seems to suggest that the results really don't mean everything.
I don't think that's what anyone is saying at all.
If you've been reading this site for any length of time, you'll know that I'm not a big fan of Jim Hendry. In fact, I'm very afraid of him being given an extension, because like you, I think the club has been moving backwards since 2003.
That said, I'm completely unable to understand the argument you're making. You want Hendry to be more aggressive, but you also criticize him for the aggressive moves that go bad. That's understandable if you're criticizing his decision-making process, but your arguments seem to avoid that in favor of simply evaluating the results. It's certainly true that bad decision making will lead to bad results, but what you don't seem to understand is that bad results don't necessarily come from bad decision making.
You can't argue, I don't think, with the signing of LaTroy Hawkins, at least when it comes to performance aspects. Hawkins had simply been a dominant reliever for the Twins in the two years before the Cubs signed him, posting ERAs of 2.13 and 1.86 (and since wins and losses mean so much to you, I'll note that he was also 15-3 over those two years).
Similarly, aside from an injury-riddled season with Iowa in 2001, Hee Seop Choi was a great hitter in the minor leagues. He hit for average (.321 in 1999, .298 in 2000, .287 in 2002), had good patience (OBP over .400 in all three seasons), and hit a lot of homeruns (69 combined for those seasons).
Now, there's no one who will disagree with you when you say that neither of those guys worked out the way the Cubs expected. But merely pointing that out does not suffice. Unlike cubsnet, I won't even ask for something you wrote before the 2004 season before I give your opinions credence; I'm perfectly happy to accept reasons why, even in hindsight, you think Hendry should have known these moves wouldn't work at the time.
It's not enough to pretend that he should have just known. That's not asking for Hendry to have good judgment; it's asking for him to have magical powers.
Post hoc
Unlike cubsnet, I won't even ask for something you wrote before the 2004 season before I give your opinions credence; I'm perfectly happy to accept reasons why, even in hindsight, you think Hendry should have known these moves wouldn't work at the time.
I amend my comments to state that I would accept this as well.
Tell me why Hendry thought Borowski could be a closer.
His pre-2003 record gives NO indication that he was anything but a one-hit wonder when it came to closing games. So when he emerged as a closer that season, he was given a fat 2 year contract which, quite honestly, he did not deserve. I will be happy to provide particular stats if you like, but the belief that Borowski had gone from journeyman pitcher to accomplished closer in one season (and the financial considerations Hendry offered him as a result) are based on nothing more than hope. I knew they were overpaying him the minute that deal was done, and I'd like you to tell me they didn't overpay for him.
Borowski
I agree that giving Borowski a two-year deal was fairly silly, for the same reason that I think giving Glendon Rusch and Neifi Perez two-year deals is silly. I've explained my reasoning on those signings here and here.
But, I was not defending the Borowski contract in the first place. I would like it very much if you responded to the points I actually made. Like I said, I'm no fan of Hendry, and you might just convince me I'm wrong about Hawkins and Choi.
Choi and Hawkins
I'll take Choi first. Whatever his minor league numbers were, there wasn't any reason to believe he would translate that on a major league level. That should be General Manager 101, but Hendry for some reason didn't do this. I said at the time (and if you want me to try to pull up some early 2003 posts I made on the Cubs.com message board I can do that) the reason the organization was sticking with Choi had more to do with salary than with potential. Choi was a rookie (or just about) and therefore cheap. I was told, at the time, that Sammy was eating up all the money, and the bullpen needed addressing, and blah blah blah. My point at the time, and it still is, that the Cubs were too tightfisted to do what it took to win. I think Thome's numbers that season (2003) could not have done anything but make the team better. He would have protected Sammy, or vice versa. And, he may have been a countervailing clubhouse presence against Sosa's rampant ego. It would have required a roll of the dice, and the Cubs passed on it. And, like I said, Choi was a complete non-factor at the end of 2003. of the 43 post-All Star atbats he had, 25 of them resulred in strikeouts. So you tell me, even with all of Choi's "promise," how does the acquisition of Derrick Lee the very next season not bear out my contention that the Cubs vastly overestimated him?
LaTroy Hawkins. He was signed, I believe, to be the set-up man for Borowski. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's what I remember. Set-up men rarely, if ever, can be considered "dominant" as you said Hawkins was. They have an important role to play, yes, but we saw very plainly that success as a set-up man did not translate into success in getting the final 3 outs of a game. He was thrust into that role when they lost Borowski, but somebody (I can only assume it was Hendry or Baker) considered their set-up man to be closer material. I think they really wanted Farnsworth to take over as closer, but he never had his head screwed on right. And Remlinger, quite honestly, left his best days back in Atlanta. So the bullpen overall was a mess. But the way I see it, Hendry is paid to listen to the scouts and make a decision. Was there nobody out there any better than LaTroy Hawkins? I don't know. What I do know is that he had a direct hand in losing the wild-card his first year here (just one game, but the beginning of the end in my mind) and that play where he caught the line drive and then forced the throw to first that bounced off the runner's helmet and into the stands early in the 05 season was as defining a moment as this team had all season long.
And looking at the future results of a signing or a trade after the fact is completely fair. I still don't see why your determination of whether a move is a good one or not is shaped mainly by the circumstances at that very moment. By that standard, the White Sox got the better end of the Sosa trade because George Bell was a past MVP who helped them get to the playoffs that year. It's as if the 13 years Sammy then gave us (and the very little that George Bell later did) don't count for anything.
Jim Hendry does not have magic powers. But he does have the ability to listen to people who get paid to evaluate baseball talent. And he can make decisions to shape the team to his liking. And with that comes praise when he's right, and scorn when he's wrong. And he's been wrong far more often than he's been right, in my mind.
circumstances
I still don't see why your determination of whether a move is a good one or not is shaped mainly by the circumstances at that very moment.
Because here's the thing: A GM does not know future results at the time he makes a move. Unless, of course, he has magical powers. Obviously, anyone can evaluate a move after the fact, but that's just not how decisions get made.
Whatever his minor league numbers were, there wasn't any reason to believe he would translate that on a major league level.
Why not? Or rather, what reasons did they have to believe that the numbers wouldn't translate?
success as a set-up man did not translate into success in getting the final 3 outs of a game. He was thrust into that role when they lost Borowski, but somebody (I can only assume it was Hendry or Baker) considered their set-up man to be closer material.
OK, I think what you're doing here is confusing the acquisition of Hawkins with the Cubs' usage of him. Those are really two separate issues. Since Hawkins was very successful as a setup man with the Twins, and you acknowledge that he was originally acquired to be a setup man, I can only assume that you thought the initial acquisition of Hawkins as a good move.
As for using him as a closer ... he certainly didn't have consistent success in that role. No question about that. It's also true that the bullpen in general was very poor in 2004. I think that is a far more reasonable point of criticism, and it was a far greater problem than anything having to do with Hawkins specifically. Hawkins was, along with Kent Mercker, the best pitcher in the 'pen that year, so why on earth should we focus on him as the problem?
Overpaying Borowski
I'd like you to tell me they didn't overpay for him
I'm with Brian here. I think you've changed the argument. Previously, you were just making the point that Hendry shouldn't have gone into 2004 with Borowski as the closer (with Hawkins as a backup). Arguing that he was given too many years and too much money is a different point, and one I'm not disagreeing with. Though, if we want to have that conversation, unlike Brian, I'm willing to defend the contract (2 years, $4.3M) Hendry gave Borowski as being reasonable at the time it was made.
Look at Borowski's body of work prior to 2003
In 1995, be pitched a few games with Baltimore and was let go. Over the 1996 and 1997 seasons, hepiches a little bit with Atlanta, and does nothing spectacular. He finishes 1997, and goes into 1998 with the Yankees at their peak in recent years. They turn him loose after only 9 games, at which point he kicks around who knows where until 1 start with the Cubs (and a horifically bad one at that) at the end of the 2001 season. That's nearly 3 full seasons out of the majors. But Lynch and MacPhail are working their reclamation magic, so he stays.
In 2002, the end of the El Pulpo/Alfonseca era, he gets 12 holds, 2 saves, and 4 blown saves. He never saved a big-league game in his life until 2002, by the way. Then, everything falls into place and he has the season he does in 2003. So my point, and if you don't think it's fair I'm sorry, is that Hendry had no reason to consider Borowski a proven closer at that time. In fact, I don't know that he did, because there was talk of Hawkins taking over at closer if Borowski didn't pan out. If that's the thinking, forget the turning a set-up man into a closer backup strategy, and get a real closer instead. Tell Borowski thanks, maybe we'll keep you on for situational work, but you aren't our closer of the future. Hendry didn't do that. And I think it was a misjudgment.
If you think, based on Borowski's career path up to 2003, that he should have been the closer for 2004 and beyond, I would say I disagree with you. I didn't like it then, and based on the results, I sure don't like it now.
Borowski Going Into 2004
Based on his performance in 2002 and 2003, it was reasonable to go into the 2004 season with Borowski as the closer, with LaTroy Hawkins as a backup option. No one knew that Borowski would come down with arm problems.
You're missing my point. He was not a proven closer.
Hendry decided that 2003, rather than being a fluke, was enough to warrant a nice extension for Borowski. It didn't then and it sure doesn't now, either.
The closer market is thin
After Borowski's year in 2003 he probably had the ability to demand at least a two year contract. The salary the Cubs gave him wasn't one that was prohibitive to make other deals, and teams are so desperate for someone -- anyone -- who can close, that Borowski actually came cheap. Give Borowski another shot, or overpay for someone like Jorge Julio. Those were essentially Hendry's options on the closer front, unless he traded for someone else, and it's silly to trade for a closer, as Borowski proved in '03 and Dempster proved last year.
With every single team in major league baseball -- save two or three -- in need of bullpen help, I'm not willing to put the signing of Borrowski on Hendry's bad move list.
Agreed that picking a closer is a hard thing.
But Borowski's fluke season could have been foretold if the Cubs organization knew baseball the way it knows finances. Yes, Borowski was relatively cheap. That could be why they kept him. But a one year deal would have made more sense than 2 years.
Murton, Lee, Ramirez
The decision to bring him here was solely Jim Hendry's and, as far as I can see, it was a major bust.
As Brian C mentioned, the Cubs still have Murton out of the Nomar trade. How Hendry got the Red Sox to give up Murton in addition to Nomar I'd love to know. And he did it without giving up Matt Clement. All he gave up was Alex Gonzalez, Francis Beltran, and Brendan Harris. Right now, Matt Murton straight up for those three is looking pretty good.
maybe signing Lee and getting Ramirez. The jury is out on each of them
If the jury is still out on Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, it's out on just about everyone in the game right now.
Justin Jones
Oops, forgot that Hendry gave up Justin Jones as well in that trade. Jones still has some very good potential.
Why are you ascribing anything to Matt Murton?
He could end up as just another in the line of Gary Scott-Bobby Hill-Hee Seop Choi-Corey Patterson "can't miss" prospects who, strangely enough, all managed to miss anyway.
And while we're at it, Jon Garland and Dontrelle Willis would look nice in Cubs unis right now, wouldn't they? Well, they once did. And each was traded away. Maybe not by Hendry, but certainly by this organization.
And if you think hanging on to Clement for 2004 was a good thing, his actual statistics that year would suggest otherwise.
Murton, Garland, Willis
True, Murton could fail. But I'm certainly glad he came along with Garciaparra, because he has a decent chance of succeeding. In other words, it was better of Hendry to acquire him than to settle for Garciaparra alone.
Jon Garland and Dontrelle Willis
Garland for Karchner was an Ed Lynch trade. And it was a bad one immediately. You just don't trade a top starting pitching prospect for an average middle reliever.
And if you think hanging on to Clement for 2004 was a good thing, his actual statistics that year would suggest otherwise.
You mean his 180 innings with an ERA 23% above league average? True, Clement struggled down the stretch, but that wasn't very predictable.
He was 9-13. That's a 40% winning percentage.
Any time a pitcher loses more games than he wins, at the very best he isn't helping his team. Blame the bullpen if you want to, because his numbers for '04 were actually comparable to 2002 (when he was something like 12-11).
I checked his career stats just now, and his numbers for 05 in Boston were actually a bit worse than they were in 04 for the Cubs. But he went 13-6, and this +7 wins differntial boosted him one game over .500 for his entire career (82-81, I think). So, even though he was a force in 03, he's barely a .500 pitcher over his career. And he'll make more money next year than I will in my lifetime, so I guess he isn't all bad. But if he was that good, why isn't he in Chicago anymore?
Re: 9-13
Nolan Ryan led the National League in ERA in 1987, yet his record was 8-16.
You can't convince me that Clement didn't pitch well in 2004 by pointing to his record, because the record isn't just "his." It's also how well the defense played on that particular day and how well the offense hit on that particular day. It's why Clement had a better record for Boston in 2005 while pitching worse than he did in 2004. Boston had a great offense.
300 Wins gets you into the Hall of Fame.
300 losses gets you, well, nobody will pay a pitcher to lose 300 games so it doesn't matter. And Nolan Ryan is not in the Hall of Fame for his ERA. When pitching well does not translate into winning games, that doesn't really help a team very much.
A Pitcher's Losses
You're ascribing team failures onto one player. By your logic, a pitcher wouldn't be any good if he threw a complete game in 30 straight starts, giving up only 1 run in each start, but was 0-30 because his team was shutout by the opposing pitcher in every game.
The wins are all that matters in the end.
The bottom line, come October, is did your team win enough games to keep playing? Pitchers have records so that we can tell, in the future, whether or not they had a good year. Losing 13 games isn't bad when you also win 18. But it is bad when you only win 9. Double digit wins, psychologically, means something. Single digit wins, coupled with double digit losses, can never be a good thing for a team that wants to win.
Why Pitchers Have Records
Pitchers have records so that we can tell, in the future, whether or not they had a good year.
No, pitchers have records because someone decided, and everyone else followed along, that whether a team won or lost a particular game should be put on one player in that game. But, as examples like Nolan Ryan in 1987 or Matt Clement in 2004 or Jack Morris in 1992 make clear, whether a team wins or loses a game is usually much more than just one pitcher in that game.
What is the #1 consideration for a Cy Young award?
It's not strikeouts, it's not ERA, but as many times as not it's the number of games a pitcher wins. You win the most games in your league, and you're the favorite for the Cy Young, which goes to the best pitcher in each league. Other stats may come into it, but when a pitcher wins 25 games, believe me, he's a Cy Young winner.
Losses are the flip side of this. When a pitcher gives up 7 earned runs in 3+ innings, more often than not his team will lose the game and he will be held responsible by taking the loss. That doesn't always mean his team will lose the game, either. An assorted start here and there can be overlooked. But a pitcher who loses 4 games more than he wins, regardless of ERA and number of innings pitched, cannot be said to have had a good season.
RE: What is the #1 consideration for a Cy Young award?
If some baseball writers make a pitcher's "wins" the most important stat for an individual award like the Cy Young, that just means they are misguided, in that they judge an individual based in part on how well that individual's teammates played.
But a pitcher who loses 4 games more than he wins, regardless of ERA and number of innings pitched, cannot be said to have had a good season.
Of course he can. If his teammates failed to live up to the standard set by the pitcher, the pitcher can hardly be blamed. It's not Matt Clement's fault in 2004 that he didn't get better run support. And it's not to Jack Morris's credit in 1992 that the Blue Jays were a very good offensive team.
Try these numbers out:
In 2004, the year in question, there were 23 pitchers in the majors with 13 or more losses. Of those, only 8 (about one-third) also had single-digit wins. That means, on average, less than 1 pitcher per team had such misfortune. And there was a pitcher for the Braves that year (maybe it was Mike Hampton) who had an ERA in the low 4's (higher than Clement's) but had the wins and losses reversed. He was 13-9, as opposed to Clement's 9-13. Are you telling me Clement helped his team more than Hampton did, simply by virtue of having a lower ERA?
I would suggest that Hampton may have been on a better team than Clement was, but wins and losses are what count in the standings. If Clement had won just 2 of the games he lost (to go 11-11) perhaps the Cubs are in the playoffs that year. There's a +4 differential if you flip 2 losses into 2 wins, and I don't think they missed the playoffs by that much.
Numbers
I look at a inning's pitched and a guy's ERA before I look at Wins/Losses. How many games did Clement get no decisions on where he gave up less than 3 runs? How many games did his bullpen lose for him after he was taken out? In 2004, I believe it was the Cubs' bullpen that was near the top of games lost in the N.L.
But I really don't understand the point of this Clement debate, tho. He's an excellent No. 4 starter on a great stuff, and a good No. 3 starter on most staffs. He's not the reason the Cubs lost in 2004. In fact, I'm still mad that Dusty didn't use Clement in game 6 or 7 of the NLCS.
I haven't suggested he's the reason for anything.
You suggested that Hendry was somehow to be credited for holding on to Clement after the Nomar trade. And I suggested maybe he wasn't all that valuable in 2004. I then pointed out that if he was so valuable, he would still be in Chicago. But he isn't. He was the first (and so far only) of the fabled starting 5 for 2004 to be let go.
Ah, well, I think I was tryin
Ah, well, I think I was trying to say Hendry should have held onto Clement for 2005, not let him get away. I think it was a bad move for Hendry to let him get away, considering the health of the Cubs' rotation.
See, I think we're both frustrated and upset with Hendry, just for different things.
The reason I started this was to openly call Hendry out.
The fact that he is being considered for an extension, when he is clearly in over his head, is a mark of the Tribune's incompetence atbuilding a winning team. They make huge profits, but they don't win. And fans who want to win, as I think you and I are, should not accept that.
Re: The Reason
Yeah, and I think you should have started the forum. I'm glad you did. A nice debate about the extension is good to have.
I think I'm more forgiving than you, but I don't think Hendry really started to tumble until last year. And I'm not sure what you're calling him out for are his misstakes. I generally like his moves, even if they didn't all work out. I'm more hesitant to re-up Dusty than I am Hendry. More to come.
Re: Try these numbers out
AlohaSpicoli, I'm not sure how many more ways I can explain this to you.
Are you telling me Clement helped his team more than Hampton did, simply by virtue of having a lower ERA?
Yes. Clement threw more innings and pitched better than Hampton in those innings. What else do you want him to do that Hampton did?
wins and losses are what count in the standings
True, but wins and losses are a team stat and a not very good way of measuring individual performance. You're saying that Hampton was better than Clement in 2004 because Hampton's teammates scored more runs than Clement's teammates.
If Clement had won just 2 of the games he lost
You mean if the team had won 2 of the games in which Clement had pitched. A pitcher can't win games all by himself.
Again with Clement.
I don't have the time to fully get into it, but the 3 starts he made in September of 2004, when the Cubs were trying to get into the playoffs, were collectively abysmal. 11 innings pitched, an 0-2 record, and a 7.36 ERA. And he missed his last start, for some reason. But his fate in Chicago had already been sealed by then. More on that later.