The Chicago Cubs are, barring further developments, heading into spring training with the second base equivalent of the 1995 Chicago Bulls' three-headed monster of Perdue, Wellington, and Longley at center. Except instead of three big, tall, and slow white men, the Cubs have three short (comparatively speaking) men: As the perception goes, the one who can't field, the one who can't hit, and the one who is not one of Dusty's men.

Using the past three seasons as the measure of their respective worth, let's take a look at who presents the Cubs with their best chance of succeeding in 2006:

	Todd Walker	Neifi Perez	Jerry Hairston
Batting Runs	10.2	-22.9	-4.2
Fielding Runs	-15.9	13.1	-1.7
Total	-5.7	-9.8	-5.9

OK, here are the numbers you are looking at: The "Batting Runs" are computed by taking Baseball Prospectus's Marginal Lineup Value rate (MLVr), which measures how many runs above or below average a player contributes to an average offensive team per game. I multiplied each player's three year weighted average MLVr by 150 games. The average is weighted to give greater weight to years in which the player had more at-bats (e.g., Todd Walker had more at-bats in 2003 than in 2004 or 2005, so his 2003 numbers count for slightly more). I chose 150 games to give us an idea of how each player would do given almost all of the team's starts at second base. So, Walker's 10.2 number represents that he, over the past three years, provided his team 10.2 more runs on offense than an average player would have, over 150 games. That's about one team win better than average.

The "Fielding Runs" are calculated similarly, except instead of the offensive metric MLVr, I used Baseball Prospectus's defensive metric Rate, which generally measures how many runs above or below average a player saves for his team in the field, over a 100 game period. I adjusted the numbers to 150 games. As a result, Walker's -15.9 represents that he, over the past three years, provided his team with 15.9 fewer runs saved on defense than an average second baseman would have. In measuring each players' defense, I counted only each players' time at second base over the past three seasons. That meant ignoring Perez's time at shortstop and Hairston's time in the outfield. After all, what we're trying to discover here is who would be the best second baseman. Each player played enough at the position to make the numbers somewhat useful.

Now on to the analysis: As you can see, the perception matches reality. Walker can't field and Perez can't hit. That said, Walker's defense measured fairly horrible in 2003, and was closer to just a little below average in both 2004 and 2005. On the other hand, Perez's offense was better in 2005 than either 2003 or 2004.

So Walker can hit and Perez can field and Hairston doesn't do anything extraordinary (plus, we're still left with the fact that no one in Cubs' management seems capable of saying something nice about Hairston). But Hairston's lack of extraordinary production with the bat or in the field leaves him an even match for Walker. Perez's offense just drags him too far down. If the Cubs want an everyday second baseman in 2006, the merits of the matter leave us with a toss-up between Walker and Hairston. A relevant fact is that Hairston is also three years younger than Walker and Perez, and thus less likely to play below his three-year averages than the other two.

If the Cubs are willing to show some flexibility, they could use the three-headed monster to some good effect. Walker, being the better hitter, should start in games involving the flame-throwers and fly-ball pitchers of the rotation, perhaps using Perez as a late-inning defensive replacement. Perez should start (but bat 8th) in games started by Zambrano or Maddux or perhaps both, utilizing Walker as a late-inning pinch hitter for either Perez or the pitcher. This leaves Hairston out of the second base mix, but he's still around to pinch-run and back-up the outfield. It does no good using Hairston as a platoon partner with Walker, as Walker hits lefties (770 OPS over the past three seasons) better than Hairston hits lefties (703 OPS over the past three seasons), and Perez hits lefties (706 OPS) just as well as Hairston.

In the end, the best the Cubs can hope for is that Walker claims the job in the spring, continues to hit like he has throughout his career, and continues to play defense like he has the past four out of five seasons, with 2003 as an aberration.