Chicago Tribune columnist Mike Downey says that Dusty Baker's fate with the Cubs "could" lie with Juan Pierre. Baker, of course, does not have a contract beyond this year. And neither does Pierre (so far).

Writes Downey:

If this guy can get the Cubs off and running, look out.

Pierre led off a Cactus League game against the Giants with a drag bunt toward the first-base bag. Few players could have beat it out, but Pierre did.

"Here's the thing," Baker said. "Modern baseball people don't always have great years. Sometimes they only have good years. Sometimes they have so-so years.

"I suppose what Pierre had last year wasn't a great year for him. But you know he's capable of having one."

And so are the Cubs.

Pierre, as this teams' centerfielder and leadoff hitter, is obviously important for the success of the 2006 Cubs. But we cannot say, as Downey does through Baker, that he is capable of having of great year, unless we have defined "great" down much too far. Pierre's best offensive seasons were in 2003 and 2004, and in both of those years he was "only" moderately above average offensively, posting .272 and .276 EqAs, respectively. And in both of those years, Pierre gave back some of his offensive value on defense. In 2003, he was 13 runs below average defensively; in 2004, 10 below.

What Downey is doing is setting up Pierre to be the 2006 version of Scott Podsednik, an average offensive player who the Chicago media, and later the national media, exalted as the spark plug for a successful team.

Pierre will not meet that kind of hype. But he will be very valuable indeed if he posts an OBA between .361 and .374, his 2003 and 2004 numbers. Let's hope for that, while realizing that there is real greatness--or at least potential greatness--on this team that must stay healthy for the Cubs to reach heights few of us now expect.