The Cubs have either 2 or 3 spots in their bullpen up for grabs, depending on whether they take 11 or 12 pitchers. Ryan Dempster, Scott Eyre, Bobby Howry, and Scott Williamson are set. (The Sun-Times' Mike Kiley has floated the idea that the Cubs may trade Williamson, but that would make little sense.) These four are the ones making the big bucks ($14.2M combined in 2006). They also should be expected to carry a heavy load, as each of them is capable of pitching more than one inning at a time (though Dusty Baker did that with Dempster just three times after he became the closer last year). Combine that with the fact that the Cubs won't need a fifth starter until two weeks into the season, and there is no reason to carry 12 pitchers to open the season.

The two remaining spots in the pen, then, figure to be a battle between Todd Wellemeyer (out of options), Will Ohman (a second lefty after Eyre), Roberto Novoa (best long-term potential), and Michael Wuertz (led the team in appearances last year). I have no idea how that battle will end up, but I'll make a prediction anyway: Ohman (because Baker will want a second lefty, and he's not a bad one to have) and Wuertz (just 9 runs allowed in 31.1 innings to close the 2005 season, with a 39/11 K/BB ratio).

But what about the other pitchers on the 40-man roster? The ones with "no chance" to make the big league club? Do any of them actually have a chance this spring? Let's take a look:

David Aardsma (age 24):

The Cubs received Aardsma, the former Rice University star reliever, along with Jerome Williams from the San Francisco Giants last year as part of the LaTroy Hawkins trade. He skipped double-A in the Giants' system, but then they sent him back there to be a starter in 2005, with some success (2.93 ERA in 46 innings). Aardsma's acquisition led to the promotion of Rich Hill to Iowa, but the Cubs moved Aardsma back to the bullpen after just 3 starts. Aardsma was the 22nd overall pick in the 2003 draft and because of that he still carries an aura of having a high ceiling as a major league closer or setup man. Why he won't make the team: Aardsma is too wild. His only chance is to have a lights out spring, but he likely will not get enough innings for that to happen. He is otherwise destined for Iowa's bullpen.

Angel Guzman (24):

Much has written about Guzman before. If all had gone right, he would have replaced Shawn Estes in the big league rotation midway through the 2003 season. Instead, he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Why he won't make the team: He's a starter, not a reliever. Larry Rothschild says Guzman is back. That would be great, but he won't be wearing a Chicago uniform to open the season, and certainly not out of the bullpen. Guzman will likely be in the Iowa rotation.

Rich Hill (26):

Hill was the Cubs' 4th round draft pick in 2002 out of the University of Michigan, but he progressed slowly through the system due to a lack of control. He strikes out plenty of batters thanks to a great curveball, and he finally reduced his walk rate last year. Why he won't make the team: He's a starter, not a reliever, despite the Cubs' giving him six relief appearances with the big league club last year. As impressive as Hill's numbers at West Tenn and Iowa last year were, he was 25 years old, and his wildness returned in the big leagues. Plus, he only has two pitches: the excellent curve and a low 90s, but sometimes wild fastball. He is working on a changeup this spring (why didn't the Cubs make him learn this two years ago?). Hill will likely be in the Iowa rotation. The only way that will change is if Jerome Williams bombs this spring as a 5th starter candidate and the Cubs decide they'd rather have Glendon Rusch as the long man in the bullpen.

John Koronka (25):

It's not entirely clear why Koronka was placed on the 40-man roster before the 2005 season. He has been a starter throughout his minor league career, but not a particularly effective one. It's much easier to see his future as a LOOGY. If that's true, and the Cubs see the same thing, Koronka actually has the best chance out of these pitchers to get consideration for a big league job. He'll have to out-pitch Ohman. Why he won't make the team: He's just not good enough. Koronka will be in Iowa in some capacity, with his best hope being the next Glendon Rusch.

Carlos Marmol (23):

Marmol is a converted catcher. Why he won't make the team: Too raw. Marmol was just added to the 40-man roster this offseason, and will likely be in the West Tenn rotation again after a half-season there last year.

Sean Marshall (23):

Marshall has moved ahead of Rich Hill on the depth chart, reports the Sun-Times' Mike Kiley. "That means if the Cubs find a need to call up a starter during the season, Marshall could have the edge on Hill." Why he won't make the team: The arms of about ten other starting pitchers would have to fall off first. Actually, that could happen. But in the event it doesn't, Marshall is, at this point, too inexperienced. Plus, he's never thrown 100 innings in a season, dating back to his freshman year in college in 2001. Marshall will be in the West Tenn rotation this season.

Jae Kuk Ryu (23):

Ryu (pronounced "You") is a 6'3" Korean who showed some durability and good control in double-A last year. He's about the last man standing among the excellent crop of pitchers that went through low-A Lansing in 2002 and 2003. Why he won't make the team: It's not his time yet. Ryu will likely be in Iowa's rotation this year.

As you can see, PECOTA isn't overly optimistic about the chances of any of these pitchers having success in the big leagues this year. The youngest pitcher -- Marshall -- actually rates the best. All of these pitchers still have things they need to prove. As a result, it really is true that these pitchers, with the possible exception of Koronka, do not have a chance to make the big league club out of spring training this year. If the Cubs' staff incurs injuries like it has the past two seasons, though, a few of these pitchers will be called upon to pitch in the majors sometime this year.