Rogers Overstates the Case for Soriano Over Walker
The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers says that the Cubs should trade for the insubordinate one, Alfonso Soriano. Rogers also says, in essence, that you would be silly to prefer Todd Walker, or any of the Cubs' other options at second base, over Soriano: "Let's see, Soriano or Jerry Hairston? Soriano or Todd Walker? Soriano or Neifi Perez? This one isn't that complicated, fellas."
Let's go to the numbers:
Soriano's and Walker's 2004-05 numbers:
| Player | PA | BA. | OBA. | SLG. | EqA | FRAA/162 |
| Soriano | 1340 | 0.274 | 0.316 | 0.498 | 0.266 | -18.1 |
| Walker | 857 | 0.290 | 0.354 | 0.471 | 0.277 | -9.6 |
Rogers, I believe, overvalues Soriano's power, coming as it does in Ameriquest Field, and undervalues Walker's ability to get on base. The last column there is Fielding Runs Above Average, as figured by Baseball Prospectus, per 162 games. Over the course of 162 games, Walker comes out close to 1 win better than Soriano on defense. So, over the past two seasons, on a rate basis, Walker has hit better and fielded better than Soriano. Plus, Walker makes $2.5M to Soriano's $10M.
Walker is 2.5 years older than Soriano, so Walker will be declining before Soriano does. And if you could get the Soriano of 2002-03, he certainly would be a nice upgrade. But despite Walker being older, it is Soriano who has declined the past two seasons and Walker who has gotten better.
In any event, the case for Soriano over Walker is nowhere near as slam-dunk as Rogers asserts, and the case may actually be a loser.
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Soriano A-Rod
Soriano is hard to assess. I think you both understate and overstate the case for him. He's one of the best base stealers in baseball (averaging 24 SB and 3 CS in 2004-05) and that's completely out of your numbers. Also he's an every day player while Walker only gets 450 PA.
That said Soriano has become the poster child for players whose reputation preceded them. He was a super prospect and it's only been a few years since he was traded straight up for Alex Rodriguez who is a superstar. He has the rare combination of power and speed (3 time member of the 30-30 club), especially for a middle infielder, that gets people's attention and gets him in all-star games and known as a STAR. And leads to quotes like Rogers above.
But power-speed is his whole game. As you noted, he doesn't hit for average, doesn't walk, and field well. And the big thing not mentioned is that he has a huge benefit from playing in Texas. His road numbers over the past two years are basically replacement level.
Put him in Washington and he may match them at home. There's a real chance the Nationals have 2B with replacement level (or slightly better) offense who they're sticking in LF. And they're paying him $10M. Even without the contract, I'd rather have Walker and I have little doubt that in terms of AVG/OBP/SLG Walker will have better raw numbers than Soriano.
EqA and stolen bases
AdamSt. -- good analysis. I had to look this up to verify it, but EqA, which I listed, does take into account stolen bases and caught stealing.