Category: Performance Analysis
Randy Wells has not gotten enough credit for how good his 2009 season was. He did not start the year in the rotation, but due to injuries and the desire to keep Sean Marshall in the bullpen, the Cubs called on him on May 8. He never let go of the spot. Despite the late start, Wells finished 4th among Cubs starters in innings pitched and led all Cubs starters in ERA and ERA+. His 147 ERA+ was 9th in the majors.
Wells was not only good compared to other Cubs 2009 starters, though, he was good -- very good -- when viewed historically among Cubs rookie pitchers.
Harden Hard to Hit - Rich Harden continued his great pitching for the Cubs today, lasting seven innings with eleven strikeouts. Once again, a solo home run proves to be the only way to score against Rich. He's now allowed nine runs pitching for Chicago,...
[Baseball Musings]
David Pinto discusses how good Rich Harden has been for the Cubs.
Coming into play today, the Chicago Cubs lead the National League in runs scored, and it's not even close. They are outscoring the Philadelphia Phillies, who are second in the league, by 0.4 runs per game. The Phillies, of course, have Pat Burrell and Chase Utley, both of whom are in the top 10 in the NL in OPS. The Cubs do not have anyone in the top 10. Or the top 20. The first time you get to a Cubs' player on the NL OPS leaderboard is at #22, where Aramis Ramirez resides. And yet the Cubs' offense has been so good that it is even outscoring all of the DH-containing American League offenses save the Texas Rangers. The balance in the Cubs' offense and the strength of its bench is amazing. Which is helpful given that the $12M rookie -- Kosuke Fukudome -- may soon see more time on the bench, writes Yahoo! Sports Gordon Edes. Kosuke has a 720 OPS since April and a 602 OPS since June.
Has anyone else noticed that Derrek Lee has been a not very good hitter for two months now? At the end of April, Lee was hitting .364/.437/.682 and looked like he did in 2005. Since then, he's hit .246/.303/.398. He has also hit into 17 double plays in that time frame. He only hit into 2 in April and has never before hit into more than 18 in a season. Lee is still hitting 3rd in the lineup. Unfortunately, the Cubs do not really have anyone else to put in that spot in the order.
The Wolf Report looks at previous Japanese players who have come over to MLB and surmises, from that history, that Kosuke Fukudome will have somewhere between a 740 and 780 OPS in 2008 for the Cubs. (Hat tip: The Cub Reporter.) See also here for tempered expectations.
Given the following information, who do you bat second in the lineup?
|
Player A |
Age |
PA |
BA. |
OBA. |
Slg. |
BB% |
IsoP |
|
2005-07 Minors |
23-25 |
560 |
0.339 |
0.406 |
0.521 |
9.1% |
0.182 |
|
2005-07 MLB |
23-25 |
929 |
0.296 |
0.365 |
0.455 |
9.4% |
0.159 |
|
2008 ZiPS Projection |
26 |
522 |
0.289 |
0.360 |
0.465 |
|
0.176 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player B |
Age |
PA |
BA. |
OBA. |
Slg. |
BB% |
IsoP |
|
2005-07 Minors |
25-27 |
728 |
0.304 |
0.366 |
0.386 |
9.9% |
0.082 |
|
2005-07 MLB |
25-27 |
770 |
0.276 |
0.341 |
0.379 |
8.7% |
0.103 |
|
2008 ZiPS Projection |
28 |
533 |
0.266 |
0.324 |
0.348 |
|
0.082 |
Baseball Prospectus' Marc Normandin profiles former Cubs and top flight prospect and current fourth outfielder type Corey Patterson. (Sub. req'd.) "Patterson's inability to make changes in his game has kept him from improving from the player he was in his earlier years, and his tendency to pull the ball with the power he doesn't have is part of this discussion." ... more
Joe Aiello of View from the Bleachers looks at whether the Cubs were cost effective in 2007. Rich Hill, at least, was cost effective.
Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts lists Carlos Marmol among his players who "have been among the most valuable players on their respective teams while earning at or near the minimum salary."
Entering play Friday, the Cubs are on pace to win 84 games this season, which would be an 18 game improvement over 2006. A big reason for that improvement has been the stability and effectiveness of the starting rotation. The Cubs are currently 2nd in the National League in runs allowed per game, at 4.17. Last year, they were 15th, at 5.15. That is a remarkable one year jump. There are a number of reasons for that jump; the starting rotation is a big one.
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