Coming into play today, the Chicago Cubs lead the National League in runs scored, and it's not even close. They are outscoring the Philadelphia Phillies, who are second in the league, by 0.4 runs per game. The Phillies, of course, have Pat Burrell and Chase Utley, both of whom are in the top 10 in the NL in OPS. The Cubs do not have anyone in the top 10. Or the top 20. The first time you get to a Cubs' player on the NL OPS leaderboard is at #22, where Aramis Ramirez resides. And yet the Cubs' offense has been so good that it is even outscoring all of the DH-containing American League offenses save the Texas Rangers. The balance in the Cubs' offense and the strength of its bench is amazing. Which is helpful given that the $12M rookie -- Kosuke Fukudome -- may soon see more time on the bench, writes Yahoo! Sports Gordon Edes. Kosuke has a 720 OPS since April and a 602 OPS since June.
It's as good of an excuse as any: "Lou Piniella plans to experiment with the Cubs lineup, dropping leadoff man Alfonso Soriano to No. 2 in an attempt to keep him healthy while inserting Kosuke Fukudome fifth," reports MLB.com. Soriano continues to have difficulties with his quadriceps and the move is designed to have him making fewer steal attempts, apparently. Whether that is a valid reason or not, having his free-swinging ways move down in the order is a move in the right direction.
Unfortunately, this now apparently means that the Cubs' worst hitter in the everyday lineup -- Ryan Theriot -- is going to be leading off instead of hitting second.
So who should be in the leadoff spot? Mark DeRosa appears to be the best option, absent doing something radical like putting Derrek Lee there or moving Fukudome to center and placing Matt Murton in right field and the leadoff spot.
All of this is, of course, subject to change, and to change quickly.
And it may change with a trade. As much as the Cubs like Theriot, I believe they would prefer a better hitter in the leadoff spot. Moving Soriano down may make a trade for Brian Roberts or a center fielder even more likely.
Cubs f/x thinks Soriano and Fukudome should switch in Piniella's experimentation. Perhaps. But the idea that Fukudome is an ideal #2 hitter is based on his Japanese numbers. I would like to see a couple of month's worth of performance before handing him the keys to a table-setting position in the order.
The Wolf Report looks at previous Japanese players who have come over to MLB and surmises, from that history, that Kosuke Fukudome will have somewhere between a 740 and 780 OPS in 2008 for the Cubs. (Hat tip: The Cub Reporter.) See also here for tempered expectations.
Given the following information, who do you bat second in the lineup?
|
Player A |
Age |
PA |
BA. |
OBA. |
Slg. |
BB% |
IsoP |
|
2005-07 Minors |
23-25 |
560 |
0.339 |
0.406 |
0.521 |
9.1% |
0.182 |
|
2005-07 MLB |
23-25 |
929 |
0.296 |
0.365 |
0.455 |
9.4% |
0.159 |
|
2008 ZiPS Projection |
26 |
522 |
0.289 |
0.360 |
0.465 |
|
0.176 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Player B |
Age |
PA |
BA. |
OBA. |
Slg. |
BB% |
IsoP |
|
2005-07 Minors |
25-27 |
728 |
0.304 |
0.366 |
0.386 |
9.9% |
0.082 |
|
2005-07 MLB |
25-27 |
770 |
0.276 |
0.341 |
0.379 |
8.7% |
0.103 |
|
2008 ZiPS Projection |
28 |
533 |
0.266 |
0.324 |
0.348 |
|
0.082 |
Seeking the most expensive corner outfield combination in MLB history, a side benefit of adding a left-handed hitter who can sell ballcaps and jerseys in Japan, the Cubs appear to have succeeded. The Cubs will announce tomorrow that they have signed 30-year-old Kosuke Fukudome to a four-year contract, a number of media outlets are reporting.
Salary figures have not been released. Carrie Muskat says $48M. Paul Sullivan says $50-56M. ESPN says $48-56M. So it appears that Fukudome will make as much as or more than Derrek Lee ($13M per), despite coming off an elbow injury that required surgery and limited him to half a season last year. Combine that with Alfonso Soriano's $13M in 2008 (escalating to $18M per by 2010) and you have a very expensive outfield even if the third outfielder -- Felix Pie? Matt Murton? -- makes minimum wage.
Given the alternatives for starting outfielders, Fukudome appears to have been the best option available. For the second year in a row, Jim Hendry outbids everyone for that best option.
The Sun-Times' Chris De Luca continues today the series of recent reports that the Cubs have substantial interest in Japanese 30-year-old outfielder Kosuke Fukudome. A Hundred Next Years has a correspondent in Japan who is not all that high on Fukudome.
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